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November Landscape & Gardening Tips & To-dos

Need help planting a successful garden or landscape? Here are some November planting tips from the Dallas Arboretum horticulture staff and the Dallas County Master Gardeners that can help keep your home garden looking beautiful this Fall, whilst having it ready for Winter and set up for success in Spring!

Planting:

  • – Begin refrigerator chilling of tulips and Dutch hyacinths (about 8 weeks) in preparation for late December to early January planting.
  • – Plant daffodils from late October to mid-November.
  • – Plant pansies, flowering kale and cabbage, dianthus, cyclamen, violas for fall color as the weather cools at the end of the month.
  • – Plant cool season fescue grass by mid-month or overseed established fescue lawns if needed. If you choose to overseed a Bermuda lawn with winter ryegrass, do so by mid-month.
  • – Divide and re-plant ground covers like liriope and mondo grass, as well as new ground covers.
  • – Select and plant shrubs and trees, especially those that are grown for fall foliage, while fall color is visible. Late October is an excellent time for planting shrubs and hardy perennials, although it’s best to wait until the winter dormant season for planting shade trees, or transplanting large woody shrubs or ornamental trees such as crape myrtles. You can plant trees and shrubs now while they are becoming dormant so they can establish roots during winter. An application of root stimulator will help get them started. Transplant trees and shrubs in your landscape now. Give them a large enough root ball when transplanting to avoid root damage.
  • – October to January is the time to plant trees and shrub that are ‘balled & burlap’.
  • – Plant cilantro, garlic, leaf lettuce, parsley, radishes, spinach, and turnips.

 

Pruning:

  • – Prune dead wood from trees and shrubs, but wait until the dormant season for major re-shaping. Tidy the garden by removing spent summer annuals, pruning dead bloom spikes off warm season perennials, and re-shaping overgrown perennials later in the season.
  • – Prune back fall-blooming perennials to produce healthy, bushy plants next spring.

Plant Care:

  • – Watch for scale insects on ornamental plants such as euonymus, hollies, gardenias, and camellias, and treat as necessary. – — Watch for brown patch in St. Augustine lawns and control with fungicide as necessary.
  • – Fertilize established fescue lawns according to soil test recommendations.
  • – Fertilize annual color with a complete, water soluble fertilizer.
    – Dig and divide spring blooming perennials now so their roots can get established before spring.
  • – As the weather cools, bring potted tropicals and houseplants inside, inspect for insects which could multiply rapidly indoors.
    – Mulch new plantings to help retain moisture and insulate roots against cold temperatures.
    – Gather leaves regularly as they drop, as a thick leaf layer on lawns can promote insects and diseases and delay winter dormancy. Add excess leaves to the compost pile or shred leaves and use as mulch in beds.

* It is important to know that the average date of the first freeze in Dallas county is November 21st – 30th

Sources and more gardening resources:

Monthly Gardening Tips – Dallas County Master Gardener Association (dallascountymastergardeners.org)

Gardening Resources and Tips | Dallas Arboretum and Botanical Garden

Gardening & Landscaping – Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service (tamu.edu)

Fall and Winter Color for North Texas – Covingtons (covingtonnursery.com)

 

October 2021 Stats Blog Graphic

October 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

October 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

October 2021 stats alert! The third quarter of 2021 resembles much of the same across Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant and Rockwall counties with active listings down about 30% and new listings down about 10%. The shortage of inventory remains here in North Texas. The number of sales in Dallas County was down 5.6% over last year, while in the other four counties they were down an average of 15% from 2020. Not surprisingly, the price per square foot in the metroplex continues to rise in all five counties with Collin County seeing the biggest increase up 29.1% over last year. It is a great time to be in the market in North Texas and we are thankful! 

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

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How to Create Instagram Posts for Your Real Estate Business with Canva

Republic Title’s Real Estate Technology Trainer Annette Carvalho-Jordan is always staying up to date on new ways to educate real estate agents on how they can build their business. Annette is extremely knowledgeable in both Realtors Property Resource® and Canva and has found a great resource using both platforms to help agents increase their online reputation through social media.

Ready to start sharing engaging real estate content with your network, but not sure where to start? If you want to share neighborhood market stats, new listings, open houses and client testimonials… this article will get you going.

What is Canva?

Canva is a simple to use, online design and publishing tool. With it, you can easily create designs without having professional design skills. All you need is an understanding of your brand colors and fonts, along with a clear idea of what you want to share.

With a free account, you’ll be able to use the templates shown in this article. But it will take a Canva pro account, or pay per download, to export the designs as graphics you can share on Instagram. If you’re just kicking the tires, try signing up for the Canva Pro 30-day trial. That will allow you to have all of the features, free for a month.

Benefits of Canva Templates

With premade templates, you’re not starting from scratch. You’ll simply find designs that you like and then modify the overall look and feel as needed with your brand colors, fonts, and imagery.

Simple Tips to Edit Your Canva Design

Agents active on social media platforms such as Instagram often share market stats for their geographic farm area. So for this article, we’re going to break down the how-to and provide a few specific templates to make the job easier.

Change Colors

  1. Click Neighborhood Market Update to access one of RPR’s Canva Templates.
  2. Select “Use Template.”
    1. If you have a Canva account, you’ll be prompted to log in. If you do not have an account, you can create a free account using your email address.
  3. Click to select the element that you want to edit. Then click on one of the color tiles that appears on the toolbar above the editor.
  1. Then from the color editor panel, click the color that you want to apply. To choose a different color, click “New color” or the rainbow tile from the editor side panel to use the color picker.

Add or Change Image

  1. With the template design open, look to the far left side panel.
  2. Click the “Photos” tab. If it’s not showing, click the “More” button to locate it.
  3. Look for images by typing keywords into the search bar.
  4. Once you’ve found or uploaded an image, add it to your design by simply clicking on it.
  5. Any image you’ve added can be adjusted from the top toolbar. Make sure you’ve clicked on the image and then choose: Effects, Filter, Adjust, Crop or Flip.

Social Media Friendly Market Update with RPR and Canva

Now that you understand the basics of editing a Canva template, let’s focus on customizing a Market Stats template using data from RPR.

First, click this link and then select “Use Template.” The design shown below will open.

Next, we need to get the data from RPR to update our graphic. You’ll need to visit RPR and search for the area you’ll be covering. If the area is a neighborhood, try using the RPR Neighborhood search tool, or create a Market Activity report for any geographic area. For this example, I’ll generate a Market Activity report for a neighborhood and we can use the data from there.

  1. Within RPR, select “Research” from the main navigation and then choose “Map Search.”
    (Note: If the map is open to the correct area, simply pan or zoom the map as needed to get centered on your area. If it’s not, use the search bar to enter your area.)
  2. From the top of the RPR map, select the “Show Geographies” pull-down.
  3. Select “Intermediate Neighborhoods,” and neighborhood outlines will display on the map wherever available.
  4. Locate the neighborhood you’ll be covering. In my case, it’s called “Lake Forest neighborhood in Lake Oswego, OR.”
  5. Select the area, and it will turn an orange color, and a map balloon will display.
  6. Click “Create Market Activity” report.

Once the Market Activity report has been generated, open it and navigate to page #2. We’ll use the Median Estimated Home Value and 12-Month Price Change for this template.

Next, navigate back to Canva with the Market Update template open. Double click on the blue median estimated home value text. It will become highlighted. Now type the correct number from your Market Activity Report. In this case, it was $690K, so type that amount in.

Then repeat this for the “Change Over the Last 12 Months”. In this case, that was 26.11%, so type that now.

See how easy that was? Now update the colors and image as needed using the directions from the start of the article.

Downloading Your New and Finalized Sharable Design

Once you’ve updated your colors, imagery, and market stats, it’s time to export your design.

  1. With the design open, tap the “Download” (or down arrow) icon at the top right corner of your screen.
  2. A menu will open, then choose a file type for your download.
  3. Wait for the export progress gradient to complete.
  4. The design will immediately save to your computer or camera roll.

Download 6 Free Canva Templates for your Real Estate Business

RPR has created a few real estate-themed Canva templates that are free for your use. You’ll need to add your own colors and images, where appropriate, but these designs mean you’ll spend less in design mode and more time sharing content in your feed.

Real Estate Market Trends Template

Review Template

New Listing Template

Did You Know Template

Open House Template

Market Update Template

 

Courtesy of:  Realtors Property Resource®

RPR Resource Center – Realtors Property Resource (RPR) (narrpr.com)

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November Class Calendar

Republic Title is pleased to offer a variety of continuing education classes for our customers. Join us in November for classes including:

Market Yourself Like A Pro Using RPR
Join Annette Carvalho-Jordan, VP/Real Estate Technology Trainer to learn how to use RPR’s marketing resources to streamline your outreach and share regular market updates on social media channels, as well as, create mailings without missing a beat.
November 4th
10:00 am – 11:00 am
Zoom

Stats in a Snap
Join Annette Carvalho-Jordan, VP/Real Estate Technology Trainer as she leads students through the various ways to generate MLS statistics using tools available in the NTREIS Matrix MLS system. This class will also cover sites with available statewide and nationwide data.
November 9th
10:00 am – 11:00 am
Zoom

It’s All Foreign to Me
This class with Jay Turner, Senior VP/Residential Counsel, will cover many areas of a transaction involving a non-US citizen including Foreign Investors Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA), Foreign Wills, Mexican Matricula Consular and Foreign Acknowledgments.
November 10th
10:00 am – 11:00 am
Zoom

The Time Is Now: The Airbnb Phenomenon, Part II
Part II: The Short Term Rental Strategy
In Part II, our guest instructor, Nancy Wallace-Laabs, Best Selling Author and National Speaker, as well as a Member of Forbes Real Estate Council, is back to further discuss:
> Maximizing Profit/Minimizing Risk
> Creating a ‘stand out’ short term listing
> Value add amenities that make a difference
This class is for informational purposes only, no CE credit.
November 17th
10:00 am – 11:00 am
Zoom

Backup, Contingent & Multiple Offers
APPROVED TREC CONTRACT-RELATED COURSE
Join us as Matt Visinsky, Senior VP/Residential Counsel as he prepares licensees to handle the unique aspects of backup, contingent and multiple offer transactions by reviewing pertinent TREC addenda along with critical dates and deadlines..
November 30th
10:00 am – 11:00 am
Zoom

To see a current list of available classes and to register, please visit www.republictitle.com/residential-education

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Texas Real Estate Statistics for Q3-2021

Texas REALTORS has released their Q3 2021 Texas Quarterly Housing Report. Data for the Texas Quarterly Housing Report is provided by the Data Relevance Project, a partnership among local REALTOR® associations and their MLSs, and Texas REALTORS®, with analysis by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M. The report provides quarterly real estate sales data for Texas and 25 metropolitan statistical areas in Texas.

Texas real estate statistics for Q3-2021:

  • Statewide, median home prices were up 16.9% to $310,000
  • 115,272 homes were sold in Texas, a 3.5% decrease compared to Q3-2020.
  • Of all homes sold in the third quarter of 2021, 29.5% were priced from $200,000 to $299,999, the highest share of sales among all price-class distributions.
  • Housing inventory in Texas dropped to 1.6 months in Q3, a decline from 2.3 months in 2020-Q3.
  • Although we’re seeing a slight decline in homes sold year-over-year, it’s important to remember we’re comparing to 2020’s record-breaking numbers. Across the state, we’re still experiencing strong demand for housing, and buyers are moving to Texas from all over the nation.
  • Our housing supply remains stretched, but we’re not seeing as many properties with a frenzy of offers above asking price like earlier in the year. Regardless, buyers in many markets still may find it challenging to get their offers accepted.

You can read the full report by visiting texasrealestate.com or clicking here.

Housing-Insight-August-2021

Texas Housing Insight – August 2021 Summary

Texas housing sales slowed in August, trending downward as supply remained constrained. Despite lowered mortgage interest rates, double-digit home-price appreciation chipped away at housing affordability. Elevated levels of demand persisted as homes averaged less than a month on the market. On the supply side, single-family housing permits declined for the third consecutive month, and housing starts decelerated even as pandemic effects on the lumber supply improved, causing a precipitous fall in prices; other material costs remained elevated. The historically low level of inventory available for sale is the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. The state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth, however, support a favorable outlook.     

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, elevated nationally and within Texas due to improved industry wages and construction values, while employment flattened during August. The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index, however, decreased as weighted building permits flattened and residential starts decreased, while the ten-year real Treasury bill increased. The leading index trended downward, signaling a potential slowdown in future activity. Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Austin’s weighted building permits reflected the statewide fluctuations as residential starts decreased in both metros. DFW leading index decreased, while Austin’s metric flattened. Houston and San Antonio’s indexes, however, suggested steady construction in the coming months as building permits and residential starts increased.

Single-family construction permits declined for the third consecutive month, falling 7.9 percent in August. Houston topped the national list for six straight months with 4,202 nonseasonally adjusted permits despite registering a seasonally adjusted decrease. DFW posted a double-digit monthly decline to 3,389 permits. Meanwhile, Austin and San Antonio issued 1,947 and 1,279 permits, respectively. On the other hand, Texas’ multifamily sector registered a steep expansion as issuance shifted from two-to-four units to five-or-more units. The metric accelerated 41.0 percent on a monthly basis and 22.6 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

Despite strengthening economic conditions and ample housing demand, total Texas housing starts remained unchanged even as lumber prices declined 19.5 percent in August. Single-family private construction values, however, declined 6.6 percent in real terms as the metric trended downward in Texas’ major metros. The majority of the statewide reduction was attributed to the steep plummet in DFW values during August.

Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) ticked up slightly to 1.5 months as sales activity and new listings decreased. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Supply improved across all price cohorts for the third consecutive month. Inventory for homes priced between $300,000 and $399,000, the most expansive price, grew to 1.6 months, while the MOI for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) increased to 2.5 months.

Inventory in the major metros increased, except in North Texas, where MOI declined slightly to 1.2 months in Dallas and Fort Worth. Supply remained the most constrained in Austin at 0.9 months. San Antonio inventory expanded to 1.7 months while Houston’s MOI expanded to 1.8 months. Although overall supply increased in August, limited inventory persisted as a major headwind to the health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Total housing sales decreased 0.9 percent in August for the third consecutive month despite lowered mortgage interest rates. The slowdown was attributed to record low activity for homes priced less than $200,000 due to dwindling inventories. On the other hand, the number of homes sold priced more than $400,000 reached an all-time high.

Housing sales decreased at the metropolitan level except in North Texas. Reflecting statewide fluctuations across the price spectrum, San Antonio total sales declined 1.8 percent. In Houston, the metric dropped 1.5 percent, while activity in Austin contracted 0.8 percent. On the other hand, sales accelerated in Dallas and Fort Worth, increasing 1.1 and 4.1 percent, respectively, amid strong gains for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) fell to a record-breaking 27 days, confirming robust demand and that the YTD decrease in sales was due to restricted inventory. Austin’s DOM increased slightly to 18 days, while the average in North Texas decreased, selling after an average of just 20 days in Fort Worth and 21 days in Dallas. San Antonio and Houston’s metric registered declines but hovered closer to the statewide average, falling to 26 and 29 days, respectively. 

Amid low expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak, and inflation pressures are believed to be temporary. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield ticked down for the fourth consecutive month to 1.3 percent2, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell to 2.8 percent. The median mortgage rate for the typical Texas homebuyer decreased in July3 to 3.1 and 3 percent for GSE and nonGSE loans, respectively. As mortgage rates dropped, Texas home-purchase applications increased over the past two months but fell 17.5 percent YTD. Refinance applications improved on a monthly basis yet were still down 12.2 percent over the same period. The annual decreases were likely due to baseline effects after a surge of remodeling and refinancing in 2020. Lenders adding more requisites, and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance is likely impacting refinance activity as well. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

In July, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional-loan mortgage dropped from 85.8 a year ago to 84.1. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was down from 36.0 to 35.8, while the median credit score increased only three points in the last year to 752. The LTV GSE borrowers also decreased from 86 last July to 85.4; however, DTI grew from 35.5 to 35.8. Overall improved credit profiles reflected the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants were able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

The ongoing shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes due to constrained inventories at the lower end of the market supported home-price appreciation. The Texas median home price rose for the eighth consecutive month, accelerating 1.2 percent on a monthly basis and 16.8 percent YOY to a record-breaking $305,400 in August. The share of luxury homes sold in Austin continued to expand, contributing to the 34.6 percent YOY surge in the median price ($464,900). The Dallas metric ($374,200) increased 18.4 percent while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($312,600) shot up to 20.1 percent. Houston’s ($301,700) and San Antonio’s ($289,500) metrics elevated 15.5 and 16.1 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Texas’ index corroborated substantial and unsustainable home-price appreciation, accelerating 18.3 percent YOY. At the metropolitan level, the repeat sales index slowed in the major metros, except Houston, as annual price growth reached a peak. The metric decelerated 38.5 percent in Austin, followed by North Texas with 23 and 20.3 percent home-price appreciation in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted an 18.1 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index accelerated 15.2 percent. Increasing home prices pressure housing affordability, particularly in an environment of low real wage growth.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to recover 6.1 percent in September after three consecutive monthly declines. The metric is estimated to rebound 6.9 and 5.6 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively, with additional increases of 7.1 percent in DFW and 4.8 percent in Houston. Sales through September 2021 should accelerate relative to the same time period in 2020. On the supply side, inventories reached a trough in May 2021 and should improve in the coming months. Listings seem to have reached a trough and are rising, easing some of the price pressures. (For more information, see the 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook.)

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments increased to 6 percent nationally and 7 percent in Texas (Table 2). Houston reflected the national average, while the metric in DFW hovered higher at 9 percent. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months rose from 14 percent in June to 19 percent (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure also grew in North Texas, increasing from 11 to 21 percent, and increasing 6 percentage points to 18 percent in Houston. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) were extended through Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (October 26, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

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Republic Title’s eVolve Team Closes 1,000th RON in 2021

Congratulations to Republic Title’s eVolve team for completing their 1,000th RON in 2021!

eVolve is Republic Title’s Digital Settlement and Signing Services Division and provides a new, convenient and alternative experience in buying/selling real estate. Republic Title is leading this transformation and developing innovative and secure ways to evolve this process for our customers. Technology and added convenience is constantly changing the way people conduct business. When our customers have scheduling conflicts – whether it’s a busy day in the office or traveling on vacation – Republic Title is able to facilitate the transaction through one of our premium closing services, either at a place of business through our Mobile First experience or through our Remote Online Notary eClosing experience. Our dedicated team of professionals will provide our customers with a clear understanding of what is being signed and why it’s needed, ensuring a worry-free closing from anywhere in the world.

The eVolve team is made up a seasoned team of professionals with at least 20 years of real estate experience each. The team includes Dennis Pospisil, Senior Vice President/Digital Settlement and Signing Services; Audriana J. Laws, Vice President/Escrow Officer; Diane Sanders, Escrow Officer; and Robin Riggs, Vice President/Escrow Officer.

Dennis Pospisil was raised in Plano and is a proud graduate of Texas A&M (whoop!). He has been with Republic Title for over 20 years and has managed the eVolve Division since its inception in 2019. Dennis says that he has loved the challenge of creating eVolve from the ground up. He has enjoyed determining what works and what doesn’t and putting the many puzzle pieces together. Dennis, thank you for the time and energy you have contributed to the creation of Republic Title’s Digital Settlement and Signing Services Division!

Audrina Laws was born in New York and raised in Texas. With 21 years in the real estate industry, we are lucky to have had Audriana on the Republic Title team for the last 10 years. Audriana enjoys interacting with our clients and seeing them in a more relaxed setting during RON closings. Audriana is quick to pick up new technology has enjoyed implementing new ideas, processes and change.  In her free time, she loves spending time with my daughter, family and friends and just enjoy living life.

Diane Sanders is the newest member of eVolve and brings over 30 years of real estate experience to the team. Originally from St. Louis, Diane has title insurance in her blood. Her mother worked in the title insurance industry for 45 years so Diane learned the business at a young age. Diane says that being in the eVolve department takes her title knowledge to a whole new level with the technology advances.  In her free time, she loves to read, road trips with her husband, and volunteer at her church.

Robin Riggs is another Texas native and attended the University of Texas at Dallas. Robin has over 20 years of experience in real estate and 8 years of experience with Republic Title. Robin’s favorite part of working in the Digital Signing and Settlement Division is using the technology and interacting with the clients during the RON closings. With a background in real estate education, Robin has enjoyed learning the new, cutting-edge technology that eVolve offers our clients. In her free time, Robin loves to exercise to recharge.

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September 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

September 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

In reviewing Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties, new listings were down in all counties except Rockwall. In Rockwall County, new listings were up by almost 10% over the same time last year. Active listings were down in September by almost 30%, which is slightly better than it was last month. The average days on market was 20 days, proving that lack of inventory is still a major factor for the real estate market in North Texas. However, the average sales prices and price per square foot are still up from last year. We are still enjoying a strong seller’s market in the DFW Metroplex! Happy Selling!

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

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Spanish Resources

Housing-Insight-July-2021

Texas Housing Insight – July 2021 Summary

Texas housing sales remained unchanged in July but trended downward amid limited supply of homes across all price cohorts. Despite decreases in mortgage interest rates, double-digit home-price appreciation chipped away at housing affordability. Elevated levels of demand persisted as homes averaged less than a month on the market. On the supply side, single-family housing permits declined for the second consecutive month, and housing starts decelerated even as lumber prices plummeted due to other material inputs keeping construction costs high. The historically low level of inventory available for sale is the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. The state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth, however, support a favorable outlook.   

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, inched up amid increased construction values and wages while employment flattened in the industry. The Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), normalized as residential starts flattened and weighted building permits decreased; the ten-year real Treasury bill also decreased. Weighted building permits and residential starts increased in Houston and San Antonio; however, the leading index ticked down in the former due to an overall downward trend while the metric increased in the latter. Meanwhile Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Austin indexes flattened as housing starts and building permits decreased in both metros.

Single-family construction permits declined for the second consecutive month in July, dropping 11 percent. Nevertheless, issuance exceeded its 2006 average and elevated 31.9 percent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Houston continued to lead the nation with 4,259 nonseasonally adjusted permits, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth at 4,174. Issuance in Austin decreased to 1,966 permits but remained well above pre-Great Recession levels. San Antonio’s metric remained unchanged, reporting 1,267 permits as the overall trend normalized over the past five months. Similar to single-family permits at the statewide level, monthly permits issued for multifamily properties sank 10.1 percent; year-over-year comparisons, however, were largely positive.

Material inputs remain costly due to supply-chain issues, but lumber prices fell 93.6 percent in July.  Consequently, total Texas housing starts decelerated 2.2 percent. Single-family private construction values decreased for the second straight month, declining 8 percent in real terms. Monthly fluctuations in Dallas and San Antonio reflected broader movements in the statewide metric, while Austin and Houston values normalized from record activity.

Housing supply remained at relatively low levels statewide, despite rising for two consecutive months as Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) increased to 1.5 months. Similarly, the MOI for homes priced less than $300,000 trended positively, increasing to 1.1 months. The two-month increase in inventory held across all price cohorts, rising from a trough in May. The MOI for luxury homes (homes priced more than $500,000) grew to 2.4 months but remained down 51 percent from 4.9 months a year ago. A total MOI of around six months is considered a balanced housing market.  

The MOI accelerated across the major metros, rebounding after a year-long decline. Houston’s MOI grew to 1.7 months. Dallas and Fort Worth increased supply to 1.2 months, and the MOI expanded in San Antonio and Austin to 1.6 and 0.8 months, respectively.

Demand

Total housing sales extended its negative trend, ticking down 0.3 percent amid reduced activity for homes prices less than $300,000. The sales composition continued to shift toward homes above that price point, accounting for 51 percent of transactions in July and signaling supply constraints at the lower price cohorts. Sales for homes priced less than $200,000 reached an all-time low as homes appreciated across the state.

Luxury home transactions registered double-digit YTD growth in the major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) despite total sales trending downward. Home sales fell 1.8 and 1.2 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively. In North Texas and Houston, total sales reflected statewide fluctuations as significant decreases in new-home transactions offset incremental sales growth in the resale market.

Despite lackluster sales, Texas’ average days on market (DOM) fell to an all-time low of 28 days. Similarly, the DOM fell to record lows in all the major metros, corroborating robust demand as mortgage rates remained favorable to homebuyers. Homes on Austin’s Multiple Listing Service lasted an average of 14 days, while the Dallas and Fort Worth DOM averaged just over three weeks. Homes in Houston and San Antonio sold at a rate closer to the state measure, staying on the market for 31 and 29 days, respectively.

Amid low expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak, and inflation pressures are believed to be temporary. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to 1.32 percent, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate decreased to 2.9 percent. Despite lower rates for borrowers, mortgage applications for home purchases continue to fall, declining 22.1 percent YTD. Mortgage rates remained low for the typical Texas homebuyer in June3, sinking to 3.03 percent for nonGSE loans, while the median interest rate for GSE loans was 3.11 percent. Texas home-purchase applications, however, declined for the fourth consecutive month in July, falling 22.1 percent YTD. Refinance applications improved on a monthly basis yet were still down 18.5 percent over the same period. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

Prices

The Texas median home price posted a new record high, decelerating 15.6 percent YOY to $301,900. Year-to-date (YTD) price growth was 15.9 percent in July, considerably more than last year’s YTD average of 7.1 percent. Three of the four major MSAs reached all-time highs in median home prices. The exception was Houston ($299,200) where the metric dipped just $1,600 from last month’s record high. Austin led the state with median price of $470,300, followed by Dallas at $370,600. The median price in Fort Worth ($306,300) and San Antonio ($286,700) rose $2,600 and $10,000, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. The index corroborated increased home-price appreciation, climbing 17.7 percent YOY. Houston’s metric rose by 14.1 percent, while Dallas and Fort Worth indexes grew 22.9 and 20.9 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the index in Austin soared 23.3 percent and accelerated 18.6 percent in San Antonio. Home-price appreciation unmatched by income improvement will continue to chip away at housing affordability.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to normalize for the second straight month, dipping 0.7 percent in August.

The recovery in Dallas is predicted to surpass the state average as single-family sales improve 2.3 percent. The metric in Austin will likely be more subdued, but third quarter transactions should still exceed 3Q2020 levels. Sales activity is forecasted to decrease 1.3 and 2.1 percent in Houston and San Antonio, respectively.

On the supply side, inventory should improve slightly, reaching a trough in May, with the forecast predicting a rise in both active and new listings. Constrained inventory has curbed sales during the past few months. (For more information, see the 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook.)

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, 6 percent of Texas homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments during July, slightly greater than the national share of 5 percent (Table 2). The metric within Texas’ largest metropolitan areas increased from last month to 6 and 7 percent in DFW and Houston, respectively. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months, however, decreased 12 percentage points to 14 percent, just lower than the national rate of 15 percent (Table 3).

The proportion of delinquent individuals who were at risk of foreclosure decreased to 11 percent in North Texas and 12 percent in Houston. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoriums for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently extended through Sept. 30, 2021. After the survey was taken, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its federal eviction moratorium on Aug. 26, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

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1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

 

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (September 24, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight