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Texas Housing Insight – February 2020 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Here is the February 2020 Summary from Texas A&M Real Estate Center.



Please note this review does not account for the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak but reflects the market through February 2020.

Prior to the domestic coronavirus outbreak, Texas housing sales increased 2.3 percent in February during healthy economic conditions and low interest rates. Housing demand was robust, although inventories were constrained, especially for homes priced less than $300,000. Strong supply-side activity, however, was poised to alleviate some shortages. Home-price appreciation accelerated, but the Repeat Sales Index suggested more moderate price growth. The coronavirus outbreak is the greatest threat to the Texas housing market via disruptions to building material supply-chains, the negative income shock, and wariness of visiting and showing homes for sale. These effects may show up in the March data but will likely have a significant impact during the second quarter of the year.

Supply*

Contemporaneous and anticipated construction levels reached post-recessionary highs in February. The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction levels, ticked up amid industry wage and employment improvements. Falling interest rates and increased building permits and housing starts supported growth in the Residential Construction Leading Index.

Single-family construction permits extended a yearlong upward trend, rising 1 percent. Texas led the nation with 11,211 nonseasonally adjusted permits, accounting for more than 17 percent of the U.S. total, but ranked sixth in per capita issuance. At the metropolitan level, Houston topped the list with 3,515 permits but actually declined 1.8 percent after adjusting for seasonality. Austin and Dallas comprised most of the state’s increase, issuing 1,631 and 2,486 nonseasonally adjusted permits, respectively. San Antonio permits fell to 773, but the metric remained elevated in Fort Worth at 954. In the multifamily sector, permits decreased 5.6 percent after a modest start to the year.

Texas housing starts surged 21.5 percent to its greatest post-crisis level with improvements in both the single-family and multifamily sectors. On the other hand, single-family private construction values dropped 4.7 percent after adjusting for inflation. As with permits, Houston was responsible for most of the contraction. Austin and DFW values flattened, while San Antonio only partially recovered from a 13 percent plunge in January.

Record sales and a dwindling supply of active listings pulled Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) down to an all-time low of 3.2 months. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. The MOI for homes priced less than $300,000 fell to 2.5 months, while inventory for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) also declined but remained elevated at 7.5 months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been made to more closely match demand and supply.

Inventory in the major metros decreased across the board. Austin maintained the most constrained inventory with an MOI of 1.7 months, followed by Fort Worth at 2.3 months. The Dallas and San Antonio metrics slid to 2.7 and 3.0 months, respectively. After a brief expansion to start the year, Houston’s inventory fell below 3.7 months as the metro’s supply of active listings contracted for the first time in six months, largely due to reductions in the lower price ranges.

Demand

After stalling the previous month, total housing sales during February rose 2.3 percent in an environment of low interest rates and solid employment growth. Sales for homes priced more than $400,000 accounted for much of the gain, whereas activity for homes priced less than $400,000 decelerated.

In nearly all of the major metros, sales for homes in the luxury price bracket were the greatest contributor to overall closings. Central Texas sales increased 2.2 and 2.1 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively, while Dallas sales rose 3 percent. Although sales for higher-priced homes in Fort Worth climbed 10.3 percent, total sales flattened as activity in other price ranges took a step back. Houston was the exception. Homes priced between $200,000-$400,000 comprised two-thirds of the city’s overall 4.8 percent improvement.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) ticked down to 58 days, indicating healthy demand. The metric stabilized at 56 days in Houston and at 53 and 43 days in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Demand was especially robust in Austin, where the DOM declined to 49 days after shedding more than a week off its year-ago level. San Antonio’s DOM ticked up slightly to 62 days but hovered around its seven-year average.

Growing concerns over the coronavirus outbreak and falling oil prices pulled interest rates down in February. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.5 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell below 3.5 percent. Mortgage applications for home purchases slowed but maintained 2.7 percent year-to-date (YTD) growth. Refinance activity remained sluggish from month to month, although the number of applications received was astronomical relative to the same period last year.

Prices

The Texas median home price accelerated 6.3 percent YOY to $249,100 as demand strengthened and inventory shrank. Austin’s median price reached double-digit YOY growth for the first time since 2015, skyrocketing nearly 13 percent to $335,600. The metric in San Antonio ($242,000) and Houston ($252,100) rose 6.8 and 6.4 percent, respectively. On the other hand, home-price appreciation softened to around 5 percent growth in North Texas, resulting in a median price of $297,500 in Dallas and $249,100 in Fort Worth.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a better measure of changes in single-family home values, provides insight into how Texas home prices evolve. The index indicated more moderate annual home price appreciation of 3.2 percent. Except for in San Antonio, where the metric picked up its pace to rise 3.4 percent YOY, the metropolitan indices’ growth rates slowed from the month prior. The Austin index registered just 4.6 percent growth compared with the metro’s much greater home-price appreciation. Houston’s index increased 2.8 percent, while the Dallas and Fort Worth indices rose 2.5 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Favorable housing affordability relative to other parts of the country supported the Lone Star State’s economic growth in the years following the burst of the housing bubble a decade ago. Texas needs to maintain affordability for the housing market to remain a stalwart in the impending recession and subsequent recovery.  

The data reported here indicate the strength of the Texas housing market prior to the domestic COVID-19 outbreak and plunge in oil prices. The events of the past month and the economic expectations for the second half of the year will overshadow recent optimistic conditions. The government stimulus bill signed late in March allowing forbearances on federally backed mortgage loans, moratoriums on evictions, and direct financial payments to Americans earning within an income threshold will aid current homeowners, but it is unlikely to spur additional home sales.  Even though we expect the real estate sector will be less affected than many other industries, the Center’s 2020 housing projections will in all probability be reached. The total impact of the impending recession on Texas’ housing market is yet to be seen.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (Apr 10, 2020)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

February 2020 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStatsVideo

The February 2020 DFW area real estate statistics are in and we’ve got the numbers! Take a look at our stats infographics, separated by county, with MLS area stats on each county report as well! These infographics and video are perfect for social sharing so feel free to post them!

To see past month’s reports, please visit our resources section here.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas Housing Insight – January 2020 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Here is the January 2020 Summary from Texas A&M Real Estate Center.

January 2020 Summary

Please note this review does not account for the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak but reflects the market through January 2020.

Texas housing sales stabilized in January after reaching a record high the previous month. Steady employment growth and falling mortgage interest rates continued to support housing demand, as exemplified by increased mortgage applications and a downtick in the average days on market. Inventories were constrained, especially for homes priced less than $300,000, but renewed permit issuance indicates positive construction activity in 2020. Although home-price appreciation has moderated over the past few years, tight supply levels put additional affordability pressure on top of lackluster average wage growth. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, there may be disruptions to building material supply chains and the visiting and showing of homes for sale, threatening the Texas housing market. These effects will probably be reflected in the second quarter of the year.

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, balanced after trending upward for four straight months as construction employment growth slowed. The Residential Construction Leading Index dipped slightly as housing starts decreased but hovered around the post-crisis high, suggesting solid levels of construction in the coming months.

Fourth quarter private bank loan data corroborated stable construction activity at the end of the year, increasing 0.8 percent quarter over quarter (QOQ). Multifamily investment climbed throughout 2019, rising 2.1 percent to $8.6 billion during 4Q2019. The one-to-four unit sector, however, stalled through the second half of the year after reaching a cycle-high in 2Q2019 of $7.7 billion.

Single-family construction permits started the year strong, increasing 3.2 percent to a post-recessionary high after a sluggish end to 2019. Texas led the nation with 11,100 nonseasonally adjusted permits, accounting for more than 17 percent of the U.S. total but ranking eighth in per capita issuance. At the metropolitan level, Houston topped the list with 3,565 permits, followed by DFW with 3,370. Austin permits increased to 1,472 while maintaining the highest per capita rate in the Texas Urban Triangle. In San Antonio, monthly permits surged to 846. Texas’ multifamily sector increased issuance in January but failed to recover to levels reached in 3Q2019 after falling at year end.

Decreased permitting activity in the last months of 2019 weighed on total Texas housing starts in January, falling 7.3 percent amid a drawback in the single-family sector. The trend, however, remained on a strong upward trajectory. Meanwhile, single-family private construction values dropped 11.1 percent to their lowest level since June 2019 after adjusting for inflation, corroborating loan value data. After reaching an all-time high in October, San Antonio construction values trended downward, comprising half of the monthly decrease. The metric declined for the second straight month in Austin and DFW. Houston values, however, reached an annual high after improving 3.3 percent.

Strong sales activity chipped away at the state’s supply of active listings. Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) fell for the third consecutive month to 3.4 months. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. The MOI for homes priced less than $300,000 fell to 2.7 months, while inventory for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) remained elevated at eight months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been made to more closely match demand and supply.

Inventory in the major metros was even more constrained than the statewide average. Austin’s MOI fell to an all-time low of two months, while the Dallas and Fort Worth MOIs ticked down to 2.9 and 2.4 months, respectively. San Antonio’s metric registered less than 3.4 months as inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 dropped to levels unseen in more than a year after gradual improvement during 4Q2019. Houston was the exception as the metro’s supply of active listings continued to rise despite strong sales activity, boosting inventory to 3.9 months.

Demand

Total housing sales during January flattened just below record levels reached at year end. Nonseasonally adjusted sales for home priced at the lower end of the market (less than $200,000), however, were well below the series’ January historical average. Sales volumes within the price range fell year over year (YOY) despite lower interest rates and solid demand fundamentals amid inventory constraints at the lower end of the market. Homes priced less than $200,000 constituted 36 percent of total monthly sales versus 72 percent in 2011.

Sales activity in the major metros cooled after accelerating during the fourth quarter. Houston sales corrected downward 2.2 percent from an all-time high in December, while Dallas monthly sales stabilized at a record 6,000 after increasing 11.3 percent at year end. In Austin, sales for homes priced $200,000-$400,000 stalled as inventory tightened after strong activity in 2019, pulling overall sales down 1.3 percent in the MSA. San Antonio extended a steady upward trend, although Fort Worth sales volumes flattened at their annual average.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) stabilized at 59 days, indicating healthy demand. San Antonio and Houston’s DOMs hovered around the statewide level at 59 and 58 days, respectively. In Austin, the metric averaged 51 days, shedding ten days from its year-ago level. The DOMs in Dallas and Fort Worth trended upward for most of 2019 after low levels between 2015-17 but showed signs of stabilizing at 55 and 44 days, respectively.

After speculations of a U.S.-China trade truce supported modest increases in interest rates during 4Q2019, U.S.-Iranian military strikes and initial news of the coronavirus outbreak pulled rates down in January. Current economic fundamentals at the state and national level, however, remain healthy. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell below 1.8 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate decreased to 3.6 percent. After declining the previous month, mortgage applications for home purchases increased 9.1 percent. Refinance activity stumbled on the month, but the overall trend remained positive considering refinance mortgage applications nearly tripled during 2019.

Prices

The Texas median home price flattened to $247,200, although YOY growth hovered around 5.6 percent for the second straight month amid strong sales and inventory contractions. The nationwide existing-home median price increased 6.8 percent YOY to $283,200 compared with Texas’ existing-home price of $239,800. The gap between the U.S. and Texas new-home median price ($352,600 and $293,000, respectively) widened to $59,000 in January after averaging $30,000 in 2019.

Movements in the median home price varied on the metropolitan level. Houston and Austin each shed $1,900 off their median home price, pulling the metric down to $247,800 and $320,400, respectively, while the median price in San Antonio steadied at $236,200. North Texas, however, registered $5,800 and $9,000 increases in Dallas ($302,800) and Fort Worth ($254,200), respectively. The rise in the former may be explained by the recent surge in sales whereas the latter’s price hike is likely an upward correction after falling $7,600 over the previous two months.  

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a better measure of changes in single-family home values, provides insight into how Texas home prices evolve. The index indicated more moderate annual home price appreciation of 3.6 percent. Strong demand and dwindling supply pushed Austin’s index up 5.9 percent YOY. Home prices in Houston and Fort Worth increased at a pace of 2.7 and 3.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the Dallas and San Antonio indexes rose just 2.4 percent YOY each. Except for in Austin, home price growth in the major metros has stabilized at more moderate levels than during 2014-17. Persistent wage improvement that outpaces home price appreciation, however, is necessary to maintain overall housing affordability, which remains a challenge to the Texas home market.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva (March 10, 2020) https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-In…

census document form and ball point ink pen on American flag for 2020

Why Texas REALTORS® Should Pay Attention to the 2020 Census

by Real Estate ArticlesResources

The constitutionally mandated decennial census that the U.S. will undertake in 2020 will affect many aspects of your business and community. Data from the census is used to draw political district lines, determine how many congressional representatives states receive, and distribute billions of dollars in federal funds to states and local communities. 

An undercount of your community may threaten federal funds for local programs, affect infrastructure projects, and muddy the data private companies use to target expansion or investment. Shad Bogany, a past Texas REALTORS® chairman and partner specialist with the U.S. Census Bureau, has been working to get the word out about how important the 2020 census is to REALTORS® and what they can do to educate their communities.

“The census affects our business more than any other business,” Bogany says. “Whether you’re a part-time agent, full-time agent, or broker, you should want to get everyone counted in your community.”

Read more about the census process, what the 2020 census affects, and how REALTORS® can help in Texas REALTOR® magazine, and check out the resources and tips for getting involved at texasrealestate.com/2020census.

Source: February 17, 2020 – https://www.texasrealestate.com/members/posts/why-texas-realtors-should-pay-attention-to-the-2020-census/

What is Survey Deletion Coverage?

by Ask the ExpertReal Estate ArticlesResourcesVideo

Survey Deletion Coverage is often also referred to as “Survey Deletion”, “Survey Amendment”, and “Survey Coverage.”  When survey deletion coverage is given in the title policy it offers Buyers protection for errors or omissions that may have been made by the surveyor and accepted by the title company by changing the language in the “standard exception” of the title policy to read “Shortages in Area” only.  The “standard survey exception” in a title commitment or policy (before being amended) reads:

“Any discrepancies, conflicts, or shortage in area or boundary lines, or any encroachments or protrusions, or any overlapping of improvements.”

 Upon receipt of an acceptable survey, the title company may amend this exception to read “Shortages in area” only.   Things that a title company will look at to determine if a survey will be acceptable include, but are not limited to, the following:  that items noted on the survey are listed in the title commitment, verify the legal description, check platted building lines and platted easements, and other matters such as the seal and signature of the engineer, date of the survey, and north directional arrow. 

Survey Deletion is addressed in paragraph 6. A. (8) of the TREC One to Four Family Residential Contract, where the parties select between the options of amending or not amending the standard exception in the title policy and who will be responsible for the payment of the premium.

There are other issues that may show up in the review of a survey, such as a building or driveway or fence over a building line, or into a platted easement.  When this happens, the title company may still accept the survey and amend the standard exception to read “Shortages in Area” only, but will generally add a special exception on Schedule B of the title commitment and owner’s title policy for any of these issues that were shown on the survey.              

The cost of survey deletion coverage on residential transactions is 5% of the Owners Title Policy Premium, and is 15% of the Owner Title Policy Premium in a commercial transaction.

For more information on Survey Deletion Coverage, download our Survey Deletion Coverage Q&A flyer 

Professional teamwork and network connection technology concept, Double exposure of arab Business man handshake to his business partner with digital graphic against city night background in meeting

Bridging the Settlement and Lender Divide in a Digital World

by Digital SettlementReal Estate ArticlesResources

Republic Title’s Dennis Pospisil, Senior Vice President of Digital Settlement and Signing Services recently sat down with eOrignal to talk about bridging the lender and settlement divide in a digital world. Check out the conversation here:

eOriginal: What barriers do you see standing in the way of a completely digital real estate experience?

Teri:

I think engagement and adoption across the industry is crucial, but certain barriers may exist, like having the necessary equipment to support the adoption of digital mortgages. For example, consider escrow agents using a mobile notary. Are they prepared, willing and ready to take digital closings on the road with them? Has everyone (and I do mean everyone) involved in the closing had the required training? Are they setup in the system with logins, etc.?

The other thing that concerns me is the existence of multiple platforms. Is that scalable for settlement companies? Are settlement companies willing to receive transactions across multiple systems?

On a different side of the transaction, are loan officers willing to adopt and change what the closing experience and celebration will look like? Will they partner for the future by thinking about what they want the closing experience to look like in the years to come?

These are a few of the questions I believe the industry should consider as we move into this digital era.

Dennis:

Many people subscribe to the “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” philosophy, but sometimes it is about making an existing way of doing things better. To continually be relevant in the market, you have to ask, “Can we make it better?  If so, how?” I don’t see enough mortgage professionals focusing on those questions.

There are other barriers directly related to finances. For example, some settlement companies are not setup properly for high speed internet nor, in some cases, do they possess technology like tablets, laptops, and/or other items that are necessary to conduct a completely digital closing.

Lastly, there are practical barriers unique to our industry, such as legislation and the county clerks’ offices in the areas we serve. Does your state have legislation in place supporting remote online notarization (RON)? Does your state have legislation in place supporting the papering out of eSigned recordable documents? What about the steps necessary to bridge the traditional method of recording with the non-traditional method of eSigning?

Unique barriers are going to exist outside of these thoughts, so those interested in supporting digital closings must identify and work through them one at time.

eOriginal: What do you think is on the horizon? How about 5 to 10 years from now?

Dennis:

First, I think we’ll see additional RON legislation in various states. We are still at the beginning of this new digital age and several states still don’t have legislation in place to allow remote online notarization. You also have some states with RON legislation in place but with a few key elements still missing or being worked on, like a “papering out” bill. As an example, Texas should expect a “papering out” bill to pass very soon, as early as September 2019.

On the seller side of real estate transactions, I see RON making a shift towards a new and more convenient experience. The borrower side is probably heading in that direction as well, but from a settlement agent’s perspective, we’ll have to see how each of our lending partners adopts the concept of digital settlement, since it isn’t something we can control.

Then we have AI, or artificial intelligence, and machine learning, which are big ticket items beginning to play a role in the life cycle of the real estate transaction. They are still some time away, but it’s fascinating to read about all the work and projects already underway.

To help the readers understand the interplay a bit better, consider AI as the broader concept of machines being able to carry out tasks in a way that we would consider “smart.” Machine learning is a subset or current application of AI based around the idea of providing machines access to data and letting them ‘learn’ for themselves. Within our space, we are already seeing some of the large-scale real estate sites using AI for home or rental recommendations.

Teri:

I agree with Dennis’s comments. At Fairway, the experience delivered to the consumer is critical, and we see settlement agents as a crucial component to ensuring that experience is positive, both now and into the future.

The mortgage industry is moving quite quickly. On the one hand, you have the proposed Uniform Residential Loan Application (URLA) changes that are happening, and on the other hand we see many different investors, programs, and products available, so it takes a lot of effort just to keep up with our market. Then factor in the Ginnie Mae offerings and the move toward digital transactions, and it’s clear that this is an exciting time to be in mortgage!

eOriginal: Where can others go to learn more about digital mortgages and lender and/or settlement agent best practices?

Teri:

They’ve already found one resource, this blog article. Others worth visiting include:

Dennis:

Adding to the list that Teri provided I’d say the following are good resources:

To view the full webinar, please visit http://info.eoriginal.com/W-JUL-MG-DC-19_On-Demand-LP.html?Digital_Source=Website

Source:  https://www.eoriginal.com/blog/voice-from-the-industry-settlement-and-lenders-answer-key-questions-about-digital-closings/

 

Texas Housing Insight

by Real Estate ArticlesResources

Here is the 2019 Annual Summary from Texas A&M Real Estate Center.

2019 Annual Summary

Texas housing sales recovered from a 2018 slowdown as homes sold through the Multiple Listing Services (MLS) increased 3.8 percent in 2019. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a three-year low, which, along with steady economic growth at both the national and state levels, bolstered housing demand. Although inventories remained constrained, especially for homes priced less than $300,000, home-price appreciation slowed for the third straight year. Housing affordability, which has supported Texas’ population and economic growth since the housing crisis, remains the greatest challenge to the Texas home market.

Single-family sales are projected to accelerate 6.4 percent in 2020, assuming mortgage rates remain relatively low and economic activity continues. Anticipated increases in supply-side activity, as indicated by improved vacant lot development, permit issuance, and housing starts, should keep price appreciation at more manageable levels than during the recovery period following the mid-decade oil bust. (For additional commentary, see the 2020 Texas Housing & Economic Outlook at www.recenter.tamu.edu.)

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, rose 2.2 percent annually as industry employment increased. Momentum should continue into 2020 as indicated by the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index, which reached its highest level since before the Great Recession. Relatively low interest rates and upward-trending housing permits and starts supported the positive outlook.

In response to supply shortages, developers accelerated activity at the earliest stage of the construction cycle. According to Metrostudy, the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs) in the Texas Urban Triangle reached its highest level in the post-recessionary period at more than 107,000, resulting in 11.2 percent annual growth. Much of the development in Houston and San Antonio were for homes intended to sell for less than $300,000. Austin developed a record 22,000 lots, although higher construction costs forced most of the development into the $200,000-$400,000 range. Activity in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) stepped back after eight consecutive annual increases but remained elevated compared with the metro’s five-year average.

Increased lot development in Central Texas pushed single-family housing construction permits up 2.4 percent. Austin issued a record-high 18,100 permits while San Antonio activity accelerated to 9,100 permits. Despite rising VDLs in Houston, permits flattened after exceeding 40,000 in 2018 for the first time since 2007. Meanwhile in North Texas, issuance declined 3.1 percent to 35,100 permits, driven by a moderate decrease in Dallas-Plano-Irving.

Total Texas housing starts faltered to start the year but finished strong, increasing 11.5 percent as the single-family sector gained momentum in the second half of 2019. Per Metrostudy, starts for single-family homes priced less than $200,000 rose for the first time since 2012, signaling renewed efforts to provide residences at the lower end of the price spectrum. Housing starts in that bottom price range, however, constituted only 6 percent of the 98,400 single-family homes that broke ground in the major metros. Most of the improvement was due to surges in Austin and San Antonio, corresponding to similar trends in VDLs and permits. Starts in DFW and Houston flattened, comprising two-thirds of Texas metropolitan starts, the lowest share in series history.

A total of $32.1 billion of new construction poured into Texas’ single-family market amid economic and population growth. Single-family private construction values, however, declined 5.7 percent annually after adjusting for inflation. The ratio of construction value per housing start trended downward for most of 2019, a result of homebuilders’ efforts to boost supply at the lower end of the market. At the metro level, Houston construction values normalized after an 8.2 percent increase in 2018 due to Hurricane Harvey rebuilding efforts. DFW values dropped for the second straight year as supply-side metrics stagnated. On the bright side, Central Texas activity continued to trend up, although Austin showed signs of decelerating.

Texas’ total months of inventory (MOI) fell to 3.1 months due to record-breaking sales; however, increased residential construction supported active listings as the MOI steadied at its three-year average. A total MOI of around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Inventory fell across all price cohorts, but homes priced less than $300,000 fared the worst with only 2.6 months of supply. The MOI for luxury homes (priced more than $500,000) was 5.5 months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been made to more closely match demand and supply.

After improvement the previous year in all the major metros, only San Antonio’s MOI extended the upward trend, ticking up to 3.2 months. Fort Worth inventory flattened at 2.1 months. Austin’s metric experienced the steepest decrease with inventories the most constrained in 20 years, dropping to 1.8 months as accelerated sales chipped away at active listings. Positive momentum in early supply measures, however, bodes well for Austin inventory in 2020. The Dallas and Houston MOIs fell to 2.4 and 3.4 months, respectively, amid rapid sales, but increased supply tempered the decline.

Demand

A record 356,576 Texas homes sold through MLSs in 2019, accelerating 3.8 percent. The bottom end of the market (homes priced less than $200,000) continued to drag on activity due to a lack of supply and rising construction costs but did not hinder total sales from exceeding the national pace (1.1 percent) for the third straight year. Some of the 2019 growth can be attributed to softer sales in the previous year due to interest rate hikes, but the average 2018–19 growth was a respectable 3 percent.

At the metropolitan level, Austin led with annual growth of 5.9 percent, followed by San Antonio sales, which climbed 5.7 percent. In Houston, transactions matched 2018 improvement of 3.4 percent. North Texas sales increased 3.8 and 1.4 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively, after falling the previous year as the market adjusted to steep home-price appreciation between 2013–17.

In the new-home market, all four major metros recorded positive growth for the second consecutive year. Metrostudy data revealed Houston new-home sales increased 9.2 percent, exceeding pre-oil bust levels. Houston’s market share of new homes sold in the major metros, however, slid from 41 percent as early as 2017 to just over one-third. DFW and Austin gained market share as new-home sales increased 6.1 and 14.9 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, San Antonio sold 12,700 new homes, marking the best year since before the housing crisis.

Homeownership across the country flattened at 64.5 percent and decreased slightly in Texas to 62.4 percent. Although the recent rise in home purchases by millennials relieved some of the downward pressure associated with an aging population, many potential homeowners struggle with saving enough money for a down payment. On the positive side, the decrease in homeownership may be partially due to an increasing number of young adults forming their own households, in which case the first step is typically renting versus buying a home, as they become financially independent. Moreover, net domestic migration as a portion of Texas’ overall population growth in 2019 rose to its highest level since 2006 at 34.2 percent. Movers from other states likely added to the household count but may not have been able to purchase a home right away. On the metro level, San Antonio maintained the highest homeownership rate at 62.5 percent despite declining relative to 2018. The metric in DFW also decreased, falling to 60.7 percent. Austin and Houston, on the other hand, registered increases in homeownership, pushing the rate up to 59.0 and 61.3 percent, respectively. 

Amid solid economic growth, Texas’ average days on market (DOM) balanced at 59 days, corroborating robust housing demand. San Antonio’s DOM matched that of the statewide measure versus 57 days in 2018 as inventory increased. The metric moved similarly in Houston as the average home sold after 57 days compared with 56 days the previous year. Demand softened in DFW but remained strong relative to the rest of the state, averaging 53 and 43 days in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. After ticking up for four straight years in Austin, the metro’s DOM stabilized at 55 days.

Interest rates fell through the first three quarters of 2019 and hovered at levels unseen since the mid-decade oil bust as the national economy continued to grow in its longest expansion on record. Uncertainty regarding trade disputes and the slowing global economy pulled long-term rates below those for short-term instruments (inverting the yield curve) to start the second half of the year but has since reverted to normal conditions. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield averaged 2.1 percent while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate shed 60 basis points, falling to 3.9 percent. Texans capitalized on lower rates, pushing mortgage applications for home purchases up 26.7 percent compared with 2018. Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, nearly tripled during the same time period.

Prices

Despite low inventory and increased sales, home-price appreciation decelerated to its slowest pace since 2011. The Texas median home price jumped 3.2 percent annually relative to growth of 4.3 percent in 2018. Although the growth rate moderated, the median price reached an all-time high of $240,000, a $7,500 increase. Some of the upward pressure may be due to a distributional shift in sales activity away from homes priced below $100,000.

Median price appreciation in Texas’ major metros moderated. The median home price in Austin ($315,000) and San Antonio ($230,000), rose 3.3 and 3.6 percent, respectively. Fort Worth’s median home price climbed 5 percent but just surpassed the statewide average at $243,600, while the Dallas metric increased 2.5 percent to $292,000. Houston was the exception where the median price growth rate accelerated from 3.1 to 4.3 percent in 2019, resulting in a $10,000 hike to $245,000. 

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a better measure of changes in single-family home values, provides insight into how Texas home prices evolve. The index rose 3.8 percent year over year (YOY) in 4Q2019, matching the growth rate in 4Q2018. In Austin, the index was more in line with economic theory as it pertains to dwindling supply and rising demand than the metro’s median price, accelerating 5.4 percent relative to 2.9 percent the previous year. San Antonio’s index exhibited upward pressure, rising 4.2 percent as sales activity picked up. The Dallas and Fort Worth indexes continued to reduce pace to 2.2 and 4.0 percent growth, respectively, after increasing about 8 percent mid-decade. Houston’s metric experienced steady growth at 2.6 percent.

Slower home-price appreciation and lower interest rates boosted housing affordability. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index measures the share of homes sold that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria. In 3Q2019, the national estimate was 64.3 percent, up nearly 7 percentage points from one year prior. In Texas, the major metros reported increased affordability. Austin was the most affordable with an index value of 66.1, an improvement of 11.3 percentage points from 3Q2018. The San Antonio and Houston indices were close behind at 64.9 and 64.6 percent, respectively. Although affordability rose in Dallas and Fort Worth, the proportion of homes that families earning the local median income could afford fell below the nationwide average at 57.8 and 62.7 percent, respectively. Texas enjoyed greater affordability than the rest of the country in the years prior to and immediately following the Great Recession, but, it has recently seen a decline in affordability. Continued improvement is important to Texas’ demographic advantages that have supported the state’s economic prosperity over the past decade.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva (February 5, 2020) https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-In…

Welcome to Texas

by Real Estate ArticlesResources

Texas Welcomed More Than a Half-Million New Residents in 2018

The 2020 Texas Relocation Report released today by Texas REALTORS® shows the state ranked second in the nation for relocation activity in 2018, with 563,945 new residents moving to the state. 

Texas eclipsed its 2017 total for new residents (524,511), and accounting for those moving out of state, saw a 78.1% increase in net new residents—from from 57,173 in 2017 to 101,805 residents in 2018. 

“For the sixth year in a row, more than half a million people chose Texas as their new home,” said Cindi Bulla, 2020 chairman of Texas REALTORS®. “And why not? In addition to its business-friendly environment with no state income tax and abundance of jobs, land. and opportunity, Texas is known for its diverse, friendly spirit and culture.”

The top states for incoming residents to Texas were California (86,164), Florida (37,262), Louisiana (29,108), Oklahoma (24,590), and New York (21,509). Compared to 2017, the number of incoming residents from California increased 36.4% in 2018. Of the state’s new residents, 201,559 moved to Texas from outside of the country. 

Texas saw 462,140 residents relocate out of state in 2018—the third-highest figure among U.S. states. California (37,810), Oklahoma (31,551), Colorado (26,930), Florida (24,197), and Louisiana (23,588) were the top destinations for those moving out of Texas. 

Source: https://www.texasrealestate.com/members/posts/texas-welcomed-more-than-a-half-million-new-residents-in-2018/

Three metal keys with keychain and house shape pendant on grey laptop with black keyboard. Online house rental or purchasing concept.

Voice from the Industry: Leading the Digital Charge in Settlement

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Republic Title’s Dennis Pospisil, Senior Vice President of Digital Settlement and Signing Services recently sat down with eOrignal to talk about digital trends from a settlement industry perspective. Check out the full conversation here:

eOriginal: Dennis, would you mind giving our readers an overview of your background?

Dennis: I originally received a degree in Information and Operations Management (or MIS), which focused on the intersection between technology and business. But my work history centers on real estate, having started my career as a real estate agent and then working across all aspects of a settlement company, eventually finding myself leading the charge for technology at Republic Title of Texas, Inc.

eOriginal: Why is Republic Title of Texas supporting the move toward digital mortgages? What is in it for you?

Dennis: At Republic, we take an “outside-in” approach, meaning that we first consider what is best for our customers, along with their wants and needs. We are starting to see the persona of the consumer change. Gone are the Baby Boomers and in are the Generation Xers and Millennials, who tend to be more comfortable with and have a preference for digital technologies.

Secondly, we consider decisions from a strategic company perspective, ensuring we meet the needs of the market. The market desires a digital buying experience, and frankly, closing is the last piece of the buying process that hasn’t gone digital. There is a lot of pent-up value waiting to be tapped just by digitizing that last element.

eOriginal: You’ve had a lot of experience with digital technologies. Would you mind talking about your early experiences with digital mortgages?

Dennis: I’ve done a number of hybrid closings on smaller platforms that died over the years. In those early days, the promise of digital closings sounded great from a settlement agent’s perspective, but the settlement community did not have the right technology to make it a convenient and positive experience for the consumer.

To paint a picture, consider what a closing with both electronically and wet-signed documents was like 10 years ago. The first part of the closing would go smoothly, but just when the borrower thinks they are finished, they would need to step into another room to complete the eSigning portion with a desktop computer and a large monitor. That’s not just inconvenient for the borrower, it’s also confusing.

But today, with mobile devices and tablets as well as existing wireless technologies, the supporting technology is in place to ensure a smooth digital closing experience.  We can offer concierge closing services that match the busy lives of today’s consumers.

eOriginal: You’ve used several digital solutions. What is some advice you can give to mortgage professionals and, more specifically, settlement agents about what to look for in a solution?

Dennis: I’d suggest they first consider what role the technology plays in their day-to-day activities. Is it an entire production system or is it an ancillary supporting system?

I’d also encourage mortgage professionals to consider the steps required to do basic operations in the product. Are there too many manual or redundant steps? Remember – these systems are supposed to make your lives easier.

Finally, I’ve been exposed to vendors in the past who didn’t have a vision for the future. They might have come out with the innovative and exciting capability that was in the news at the time, but they didn’t consider how those capabilities could provide value at scale, or how to augment and grow them in the future. I suggest others in the industry partner with providers that have a solid roadmap, a pulse on the market, and are seeking to find a different and better way.

eOriginal: What barriers do you see to settlement agents supporting digital mortgages?

Dennis: Many people subscribe to the “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it,” philosophy, but sometimes it is about making an existing way of doing things better. To continually be relevant in the market, you have to ask, “Can we make it better? If so, how?” I don’t see enough mortgage professionals focusing on those questions.

There are other barriers directly related to finances. For example, some settlement companies are not set up for high-speed internet, tablets, or laptops. And, finally, there are practical barriers unique to our industry, like legislation and the county clerks’ offices in the areas we serve. For example, we are still waiting on a “papering out” bill in Texas, but once that is in place, many of the existing hurdles to digital closings will begin to disappear.

eOriginal: One thing we hear about in the market is the potential for cost savings with digital. But we often hear about that in reference to lenders and other sectors of the mortgage ecosystem, not the settlement community. Are there potential cost savings for settlement agents? 

Dennis: Yes, but I prefer to look beyond cost savings and consider revenue potential. Depending on the size of the operation, there are obvious hard cost savings in the form of paper, toner, and devices for printing. There are also softer savings like operational efficiency. At Republic Title of Texas, the efficiencies gained from adopting digital allow us to free our talented employees to drive growth for our business through new services and new markets. It allows us to access our business’s untapped potential.

eOriginal: We’ve talked about costs and revenue opportunities, but what about broader headaches? Can digital technology help there as well?

Dennis: Lost or misplaced files is certainly one headache that digital addresses. When you are using a digital system, your files and data are in one place, easily accessible. Another headache is in the talent management realm. There are talented people that settlement companies cannot hire because they don’t live near any of their brick-and-mortar locations. Supporting a digital process may open more avenues for finding top talent.

eOriginal: Do you feel the adoption and commitment toward digital mortgage is different now than in times past? If so, how?

Dennis: Thinking back to the early 2000s, we saw interest develop and then, just as quickly, disappear. The feeling is substantially different today. For one, we’ve seen many more digital closings this year than in years past. In fact, MERSCORP Holdings, Inc. recently announced that there were more eNotes registered in the first quarter of 2019 than in all of 2018. A second point to consider is that the ecosystem required to support and sustain the digital mortgage movement is taking shape, certainly much more than it did in those early years.

eOriginal: As we close, do you have any suggestions for settlement agencies considering support for digital mortgages?

Dennis: Be sure to approach moving to digital as a strategic initiative, rather than a one-off project. Think about your overall business strategy and then factor where digital can provide a sustainable impact. Be prepared to fully support and build on digital capabilities, rather than making a one-time investment in the latest technology. A commitment to digital requires more than just technology, it requires building a team of positive, digitally ready employees along with a strong ecosystem of digitally enabled partners.

Source: https://www.eoriginal.com/blog/a-voice-from-the-industry-leading-the-digital-charge-in-settlement/

Texas Housing Insight

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Here is a great post from Texas A&M Real Estate Center regarding home sales for November.

Texas housing sales stabilized in November after reaching a record high the previous month. Steady employment growth and low mortgage interest rates continued to support housing demand, as exemplified by rising mortgage applications and a downtick in the average days on market. As home builders continued to concentrate their efforts to provide more affordable homes, inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 expanded for the first time since February. Additional supply at the lower end of the market pushed Austin sales to record-breaking levels while also supporting an increase in San Antonio’s sales volume. On the other hand, November home purchases in Houston and North Texas fell due to low inventories in the same price range. Although home-price appreciation has moderated over the past few years, housing affordability remains the primary challenge to the Texas housing market.

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, ticked up with industry wage improvements. The Residential Construction Leading Index rose to its highest level since the Great Recession as housing starts increased, suggesting higher levels of construction in the coming months.

Single-family construction permits fell for the first time in five months, but the year-to-date (YTD) count increased 1.5 percent compared with January-through-November levels in 2018. Texas led the nation with 9,128 nonseasonally adjusted permits, accounting for 16 percent of the U.S. total, but ranked seventh in per capita issuance. On the metropolitan level, Houston topped the list for the 13th straight month with 2,883 permits, followed by DFW with a post-recessionary record 2,789. Issuance remained strong in Central Texas with 1,259 and 736 permits in Austin and San Antonio, respectively. Texas’ monthly multifamily permits stepped back from a YTD record in October but maintained a strong upward trend.

Total Texas housing starts accelerated to a one-and-a-half year high, increasing 6.1 percent amid a rebound in the multifamily sector. Single-family private construction values fell 8.7 percent after data revisions pushed October values upward. November levels, however, were in line with the yearlong average. Houston and San Antonio registered monthly losses but maintained positive momentum. Austin and DFW construction values increased after dropping in October.

Strong construction activity balanced solid sales volumes. Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) remained at 3.6 months for the fifth consecutive month. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. The MOI for homes priced less than $300,000, which comprised two-thirds of sales, ticked above 2.8 as the supply of active listings increased for the third straight month. Inventory for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000), however, remained elevated at 8.3 months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been made to more closely match demand and supply.

Inventory continued to decrease in Austin and Dallas, sliding below 2.2 months in the former and posting 3.1 months in the latter. The Fort Worth and Houston MOIs steadied at 2.5 and 3.9 months, respectively. Meanwhile in San Antonio, a recent influx of new listings pushed the MOI to 3.7 months with a notable increase in the $200,000-$300,000 price cohort.

Demand

Total housing sales flattened in November after adjusting for seasonality. The upward trend, however, persisted amid low interest rates and ongoing strength in the job market. Activity for homes priced above $200,000 slowed after reaching record-breaking levels the previous month but increased more than 10 percent compared with 2018 on a YTD basis.

Central Texas sales volumes continued to grow, particularly in Austin, where transactions climbed 3.2 percent for the fifth straight month. Most of the monthly improvement occurred in the $200,000-$300,000 price range after weakness in the first half of the year. San Antonio sales rose 1 percent, largely due to a surge in closings for homes priced below $200,000. Houston and Fort Worth, however, lost traction in the $200,000-$300,000 bracket, pulling total sales down 1.3 and 1.1 percent, respectively. Dallas sales activity declined 3.4 percent with decreases across all price cohorts.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) stabilized at 59 days, indicating healthy demand. The DOM in Houston and San Antonio steadied at 56 and 59 days, respectively. In Austin, the DOM recorded a monthly increase to 57 days but shed two days from a year ago. North Texas demand remained strong compared to the rest of the state with DOMs of 51 and 45 days in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively.

Speculations of a U.S.-China trade truce and continued strength in the national economic data slowed the downward slide in interest rates. Long-term rates were above those for short-term instruments for the second straight month following a four-month yield curve inversion, signaling increased confidence. Concerns of a recession lessened as current economic fundamentals at the state and national level remain healthy and stable. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose above 1.8 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate stabilized at 3.7 percent. After falling the previous month, mortgage applications for home purchases climbed nearly 30 percent YTD. Refinance mortgage application activity accelerated as rates remained relatively low, almost tripling since year end.

Prices

The Texas median home price flattened at $245,300, while annual home-price appreciation decelerated to 4.2 percent. The median price for new homes flattened; however, resale transactions, which comprise the majority of home sales, recorded the fastest median price growth rate this year of 5.5 percent year over year (YOY), exceeding the national existing-home price appreciation of 5.4 percent YOY.

On the metropolitan level, median home prices fell. Austin’s median price dropped $14,600 from an all-time high in October to $314,400. San Antonio’s metric shed $6,300, falling to $229,500 as homes priced less than $200,000 comprised more than a third of total sales for the first time since May. The median price in North Texas was $293,600 and $251,800 in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Houston’s price decreased for the second straight month to $245,100.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index indicated more moderate home price appreciation of 3.7 percent. The Dallas and Houston indices slowed pace, increasing only 2.1 and 2.0 percent YOY, respectively. San Antonio’s index increased 4.1 percent YOY but decelerated from growth as high as 6.6 percent in January. On the other hand, Austin’s and Fort Worth’s indexes accelerated 5.5 and 4.3 percent YOY, respectively. Rising home prices without substantial wage growth decreases overall housing affordability, which remains the primary challenge to the Texas home market.

Click here for the full report.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva (January 10, 2020) https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-In…

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