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Texas Housing Insight March 2025 Summary

All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

Key metrics for March 2025: total home sales decreased 1.8% year-over-year, median home price increased 1.0% year-over-year, active listings increased 29.7% year-over-year, and new construction decreased 6.8% year-over-year.

Total home sales declined in first quarter 2025. The recent surge in inventory was not enough to counteract a slowdown in home sales, with February and March contributing to the overall decline. As mortgage rates held high near 6.75 and 7 percent, the slowdown in sales underscored ongoing affordability challenges weighing on buyer demand.  

New listings entering the market continue to accelerate at a record pace, contributing to rapid inventory growth and pushing availability to its highest levels since the 2007-08 housing crash. The current rate of inventory growth is nearly double that of the build-up during the Great Financial Crisis, when foreclosures flooded the market and demand plummeted. 

Entry-level homes lead the surge in inventory growth, underscoring how high mortgage rates have disproportionately impacted first-time and moderate-income homebuyers who often have limited savings and rely heavily on financing. 

High inventory and slow sales have motivated sellers to slash prices at record rates to attract buyers. Price cuts in 1Q2025 accelerated compared to 2023 and 2024, reaching their highest since 2011, a period marked by widespread foreclosures and a sharp decline in housing activity.   

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent means mortgage rates will remain elevated this spring and likely beyond, offering no relief from high borrowing costs while further limiting affordability and dampening demand. Whether this move—eliminating interest rate uncertainty—will encourage previously hesitant buyers to re-enter the market remains to be seen with the incoming data. While affordability is unlikely to improve soon, current inventory conditions have put pressure on sellers, giving buyers more room to negotiate lower prices.  

Slower First Quarter Sales

Despite the surge in inventory in recent months, total home sales declined in first quarter 2025, weighed down by weak home sales in February and March.  

This table shows the monthly closed sales, year-over-year % vs. March 2024, year-to-date % vs. quarter 1 2024, and median sale price in Texas and the U.S. for March 2025. In March 2025, Texas had 28,020 monthly closed sales, declined 1.8% year-over-year in home sales, declined 1.7% year-to-date in home sales, and the median sale price was $340,000 for Texas. In the U.S., there were 315,000 monthly closed sales, home sales declined 3.1% year-over-year, declined 2.2% year-to-date, and had an overall median sale price of $403,700 in March 2025.

Sources: Texas Real Estate Research Center and NAR Existing Homes Sales, retrieved from Haver Analytics

A total of 28,020 home sales (including new and existing homes) were recorded statewide, comprising 8.9 percent of homes sales nationwide. 

  • March home sales declined 1.8 percent from last year, contributing to the 1.7 percent decline in 1Q home sales. 
  • March home sales increased month-over-month (MoM) from February (not shown), but the seasonal momentum was softer than normal. 
  • Nationally, March and 1Q home sales were down at 3.1 and 2.2 percent, respectively, weighed down by weak home sales in Southern states, according to the National Association of Realtors. 
  • Statewide median sales price was $340,000, up by 1 percent from a year ago ($336,600). The national median home was $403,700. 

New Listings Drive Continued Inventory Growth

The rise in new listings continues to drive rising inventory availability. As highlighted in the January and February issues of Texas Housing Insights, inventory has reached its highest level since 2016, driven in part by the influx of new listings.  

Figure 1. Rising New Listings Now Exceed Pre-Pandemic Rates is a line graph with a thick red line representing 2025, a blue line for 2024, and a black dash line for 2019. In January, there were 46,600 new listings in 2025, 39,800 in 2024, and 38,700 in 2019. For February there were 46,300 new listings in 2025, 43,500 in 2024, and 37,700 in 2019. In March there were 56,600 new listings in 2025, 48,700 in 2024, and 46,500 in 2019. In April there were 52,600 new listings in 2024 and 49,000 in 2019. In May there were 54,600 new listings in 2024 and 51,700 in 2019. June had 51,500 new listings in 2024 and 48,500 in 2019. July had 47,600 in 2024 and 48,300 in 2019. In August there were 49,300 new listings in 2024 and 44,300 in 2019. September had 44,000 new listings in 2024 and 38,500 in 2019. October had 46,300 new listings in 2024 and 39,900 in 2019. November had 36,800 new listings in 2024 and 31,500 in 2019. Lastly, December had 30,300 new listings in 2024 and 25,200 in 2019.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

In Figure 1: 

  • New listings surged by 16.2 percent year-over-year (YoY) in March following increases of 6.4 percent in February and 17.1 percent in January. These gains sent 1Q new listings to 13.3 percent above 1Q2024 levels. 
  • March and 1Q new listings surpassed pre-pandemic levels by approximately 22 percent. 
  • With the current surge in new listings and slowing demand, inventory is on track to expand and push availability to new highs. 

Entry-Level Homes Lead Inventory Surge

Total active inventory has been rising at an average of 31 percent YoY since spring 2024, reaching 132,140 at the end of March. The current pace of inventory growth is nearly double that of the build-up following the 2007-08 housing market crash and the Great Financial Crisis. When broken down by different price tiers, entry-level homes have seen fastest accelerations in inventory growth. 

Figure 2. Entry-level homes lead year-over-year inventory growth is a combination of a bar and line graph. blue bars represent the monthly amount of homes above $750k. An orange line with triangles represent homes within the $500-750k price range, a green line with diamonds represent homes within the $300-500k price range, and a black line with triangle represent homes below $300k. In April 2024, 33% of entry-level homes were above $750k, 31% were within the $500-750k price range, 36% in the $300-500k range and 48% below $300k. In May 2024, 35% were above $750k, 36% within $500-750k, 41% within $300-500k, and 52% below $300k. June 2024 had 29% of entry-level homes above $750k, 32% within $500-750k, 36% within $300-500k, and 49% below $300k. July 2024 had 26% above $750k, 28% within the $500-750k range, 34% in the $300-500k range, and 48% below $300k. In August 2024, 23% was above $750k, 28% within $500-750k, 31% within $300-500k, and 43% below $300k. In September 2024, 20% was above $750k, 24% within $500-750k, 26% within $300-500k, and 37% below $300k. October 2024 had 18% above $750k, 22% within $500-750k, 24% within $300-500k, and 33% below $300k. November 2024 had 15% above $750k, 19% within $500-750k, 23% within $300-500k, and 29% below $300k. December 2024 had 15% above $750k, 18% in the $500-750k range, 23% in the $300-500k range, and 29% below $300k. January 2025 had 19% above $750k, 24% in the $500-750k range, 30% in the $300-500k range, and 31% below $300k. February 2025 had 22% above $750k, 23% in the $500-750k range, 30% in the $300-500k range, and 31% below $300k. March 2025 had 25% above $750k, 27% in the $500-750k range, 30% in the $300-500k range, and 33% below $300k. The average for entry-level homes above $750k is 23%, 26% within the $500-750k range, 30% in the $300-500k range, and 39% below $300k.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center 

In Figure 2: 

  • Entry-level homes (listing price below $300,000) have shown the steepest inventory accelerations, reaching an average of 39 percent YoY since April 2024. While still reflecting a record-setting pace, inventory growth of other price tiers was not as rapid as entry-level homes.  
  • In March, entry-level home inventory increased 33 percent YoY, followed by a 30 percent rise for homes listed between $300,000 and $500,000, 27 percent for homes priced between $500,000 and $750,000, and 25 percent for homes listed above $750,000. 
  • Not shown: Entry-level homes accounted for 34 percent of all active listings. The remaining 66 percent is distributed as follows: 37 percent in the low mid-price range ($300,000-$500,000), 16 percent in the high mid-price range ($500,000-$750,000), and 13 percent in the top price tier (above $750,000). 

More Sellers Are Cutting Prices amid Weak Sales and Rising Inventory

High inventory and weak demand have motivated sellers to slash prices at record rates to attract buyers. More than 70 percent of closed sales in 1Q cut prices by $5,000 or more. The rate of price cuts was even slightly higher than in 1Q2011, a time when foreclosure rates were high. As highlighted in the January and February Texas Housing Insights, recent market indicators—including inventory buildup, days on market (DOM), and inventory turnover ratios—reveal home sales are at their slowest rates since 2016 while homes are sitting on the market longer than usual, prompting sellers to cut prices to attract offers. 

Figure 3. Percentage of Sellers Reducing Prices by at least $5,000 is a bar graph with blue representing January, red for February, and green for March. In 2016, January had a 56.7%, February had 54.8%, and March had a 51.1% of sellers reducing prices. There were 57.7% of sellers reducing prices in January of 2017, 56.5% in February 2017, and 53.3% in March 2017. January 2018: 59.8%, February 2018: 58.0%, and March 2018: 54.1%. In January 2019, 62.6% of sellers, 59.1% of sellers in February, and 57.5% in March 2019. 2020 had 61.4% in January, 58.7% in February, and 54.2% in March. 2021 had 45.5% in January, 41.3% in February, and 37.2% in March. In 2022 there were 38.4% in January, 35.1% in February, 29.7% in March. 2023 had 70.9% in January, 68.5% in February, and 63.6% in March. In 2024 there were 71.6% in January, 68.6% in February, and 64.4% in March. 2025 there's been 72.7% in January, 70.4% in February, and 64.7% in March.

Sources: Texas Real Estate Research Center

In Figure 3: 

  • In March, 64.7 percent of home sales saw price reductions of at least $5,000. In January and February, the percentage of sales with price cuts was higher, at 72.7 and 70.4 percent, respectively. Slower winter sales months typically see more price cuts by sellers. 
  • Sellers have become more aggressive with price reductions than in 2024 and 2023. Not shown: In March, median price reductions were $12,500, compared to $10,000 in March 2024. 
  • As a percentage, the median price reduction amounted to 3.6 percent of the listing price.  
  • Price reductions have reached their highest levels compared to the pre-pandemic market or to 2023 and 2024. 

Houston Leads with Steady Home Price Appreciation

The Texas Real Estate Center Home Price Index (Texas HPI) continues to capture steady prices with gradual home price appreciation across the state. In March, the Texas HPI recorded a 1 percent increase YoY after rising at a similar pace in January (1.7 percent) and February (1 percent).   

Figure 4. Home Price Appreciation, year-over-year percentage is a bar graph showing year-over-year changes in home price appreciation in Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Texas overall with blue bars for January 2025, red bars for February 2025, green bars for March 2025. In Austin, January, February and March had a decline in home price appreciation with March having a -2.0% change. In Dallas, January had a positive home price appreciation year-over-year change, February had a slight increase year-over-year, and March had a negative year-over-year change of .03%. In Houston, January, February, and March all had a positive year-over-year change with March having a 2.4% increase. In San Antonio, January had a positive year-over-year change, February had a negative change, and March had a positive change of 2.1% year-over-year. Overall, Texas experienced positive year-over-year changes in home price appreciation for January, February, and March, where March had a positive 1.0% year-over-year change.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center 

In Figure 4: 

  • Houston continues to lead with the largest YoY increase at 2.4 percent, making the 17th consecutive month of steady-pace upward momentum in home prices. 
  • In Dallas, home prices weakened over the past three months, driven by rapid inventory growth, especially in the Dallas-Plano-Irving area. 
  • The March San Antonio HPI recorded a 2.1 percent YoY increase. Compared to Dallas, Houston, and Austin, San Antonio’s HPI tend to exhibit greater volatility, as reflected in its fluctuating YoY trends over the past three months. Overall, the city’s 1Q2025 home prices rose 0.7 percent YoY. 
  • As of March 2025, Austin continues to experience a modest 2 percent price decline YoY.  

Local Housing Market Indicators

March 2025 Inventory Velocity

The table presents housing market data for various metropolitan areas across Texas, highlighting metrics such as monthly home sales, year-over-year (YOY) sales growth, year-to-date (YTD) sales change, and median home prices. Statewide, there were a total of 28,190 home sales recorded, marking a slight decline of 1.8% compared to the same month last year, and a YTD decrease of 1.7%. The statewide median home price stands at $340,000. Among the metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington leads in monthly sales with 7,778 transactions, followed closely by Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands with 7,344, and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with 2,545. Despite the high volume of sales, both Austin and Houston reported a decline in YTD sales, at -7.7% and -1.3%, respectively, while Dallas saw a smaller decline of -1.2%. Austin also recorded the highest median home price in the state at $439,900, followed by Dallas at $395,000 and Midland at $376,000. In terms of sales growth, Laredo posted the most significant YOY increase at 75.0%, followed by College Station-Bryan with 57.9%, and Midland with 54.8%. Conversely, several areas saw declines in YTD sales, with Victoria (-14.5%), Eagle Pass (-15.5%), and Longview (-11.5%) experiencing the sharpest drops. Rural areas not within MSAs also showed solid YOY growth of 20.5% but faced a 4.0% drop in YTD sales, with a median home price of $250,000. Overall, while certain regions such as Laredo and College Station are experiencing strong sales growth, much of the state continues to see modest declines in year-to-date activity, indicating a mixed housing market environment across Texas.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center 

March 2025 Inventory Velocity

This second table provides data on housing inventory across Texas metropolitan areas, specifically focusing on the number of active listings, year-over-year (YOY) change in active listings, and YOY change in new listings. Statewide, there were 132,140 active listings, a 29.7% increase compared to the same time last year. New listings also rose 17.1% YOY, suggesting a growing supply of homes across much of Texas. The Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands area recorded the highest number of active listings at 33,025, up 36.6% YOY, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington with 29,819 listings (up 36.1%) and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with 11,317 listings (up 26.2%). Among these, Houston also showed a significant increase in new listings at 26.8%, while Austin had a more modest growth of 10.6%. The strongest increases in active listings YOY were seen in Texarkana (up 43.8%), McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (37.1%), and Eagle Pass (36.3%). In contrast, cities like Victoria (up only 0.7%) and Lubbock (up 0.9%) showed very limited growth in housing inventory. Some markets are experiencing a decline in new listings despite an increase in overall inventory. For example, Lubbock saw a 10.3% decrease in new listings, and Eagle Pass dropped by 13.9%. Other metros with declining new listings include Laredo (-8.8%) and Victoria (-8.9%). Overall, the Texas housing market is seeing a broad increase in active listings across most regions, which could indicate a cooling market with more supply available. However, certain areas are experiencing tighter inventory conditions due to fewer new listings coming online.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

New Construction Year-to-Date (January through March 2025)

This third table provides insights into building permit activity across Texas metro areas, showing the year-to-date (YTD) number of permits issued, percentage change from the previous year, and the average permit unit value. Statewide, there have been 38,426 building permits issued so far, reflecting a 6.8% decrease from the same period last year. The average permit unit value statewide stands at $289,307, which gives a sense of the average construction cost per residential unit being approved. The largest number of permits has been issued in Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands with 12,988 permits, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington with 10,988, and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos with 4,072. All three of these high-volume markets, however, reported year-over-year declines: Houston (-5.5%), Dallas (-10.0%), and Austin (-9.5%). Among areas showing the greatest percentage increases, Abilene leads significantly with a 144.2% increase in building permits, followed by San Angelo (+42.6%) and Waco (+29.3%). In contrast, some areas have seen steep drops in permit activity, including Tyler (-37.3%), Wichita Falls (-28.3%), and Amarillo (-25.6%). In terms of permit unit value, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos posted the highest average at $314,723, followed by San Angelo at $304,672 and Lubbock at $303,209, suggesting these areas may be seeing higher-end or more expensive residential developments.

Note: Texarkana, Victoria, and Eagle Pass have few building permits authorized and are not reported. 
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Housing Insight | March 2025 | Texas Real Estate Research Center – By Yanling Mayer, Joshua Roberson, and Junqing Wu

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