Disclaimer: The January 2026 figures are based on more complete data and have been revised from their initial release.
The 2026 market opened with rising seller activity, elevated inventory levels, and persistent pricing pressure as affordability challenges continue to shape buyer demand. While demand is still weak and constrained, the balance of power at this point remains tilted toward buyers as supply continues to build.
Seller participation has accelerated at the start of the year, reversing the pullback seen in late 2025. The latest data indicates that fresh listings are returning at a pace that has pushed inventory above levels from the same period in 2025, when seller activity reached record highs. Whether this renewed momentum reflects improving seller confidence or an anticipation of a stronger spring market ahead – as mortgage rates eased and even briefly dipped below 6 percent – remains uncertain. (At publication time, rates had popped back above 6 percent.) It is more likely tied to typical seasonal preparation for the spring market, combined with a desire to list before further price softening takes hold. In the ongoing downturn, home prices extended their declines into 2026, showing little signs of easing while even accelerating in Southeast and South Central Texas.
The surge in new listings has pushed active inventory higher across all major Texas metros. January levels exceeded those of the past two years, and the state is on track to reach new inventory highs in 2026. With new supply consistently outpacing sales, the market is entering the spring season with more options in the pool of available homes and offering buyers more choice.
At this point, the outlook for the spring 2026 market remains highly uncertain. Domestically, the lates job report and inflation reading offer mixed signals for monetary policy, leaving unclear whether there is sufficient room for interest-rate cuts. While the broader macro environment remains central to both U.S. and Texas housing conditions, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, have introduced heightened volatility in the global energy markets and supply chains, potentially adding significant upward pressure on inflation. Should geopolitical risks persist and supply-driven inflation intensify, the U.S. economy and housing market could face substantial headwinds in the months ahead.
January Sales Broadly Down
Notes: The sales numbers reflect actual sales, not the seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Texas REALTORS and National Association of REALTORS data (accessed at Haver Analytics)
- Statewide, January recorded 19,193 closed sales, a 2.9 percent year-over-year (YoY) decline, giving back some of December’s strong gains. Regionally, sales dropped 9.9 percent in San Antonio, 6.8 percent in Austin, 6.1 percent in DFW, and 3.9 percent in Houston (see Table 3 in the Appendix).
- Statewide median home prices slipped to $321,000 from December’s $330,000, or 2.7 percent month over month (MoM) and consistent with normal seasonal softening. Prices fell 1.5 percent YoY.
- Nationally, seasonally unadjusted home sales fell more sharply to 7.1 percent YoY. Sales eased across all U.S. regions after a strong December month (not shown) led by a 9.7 percent drop in the Northeast, 9.4 percent in the Midwest, 8.9 percent in the West, and 4.5 percent in the South.
- In January, the national median price for existing single-family homes were just above $400,000, relatively unchanged from a year ago.
Monthly Market Snapshot: January Sales and Inventory Trends
Notes: The turnover rate is calculated as pending sales divided by inventory, where inventory is the average of month-beginning and month-end inventory
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data
- In January, homes spent an average of 80 days on the market, up from 74 days in 2025 and 65 days in 2024. January is typically the slowest month for sales, and this year followed that pattern.
- January also marks a multi-year low in housing turnover, with fewer than one in five active listings selling.
- Median seller price cuts were $19,000, or 5 percent off the initial listing price, and were down from the month prior, which reached an all-time high of $19,900.
- In January, active inventory rose to a 4.7-month supply, increasing from late-2025 levels as new listings returned ahead of the spring market. On a YoY basis, inventory at the start of 2026 surpassed both last year and the year before.
- Average days-on-market (DOM) for unsold inventory climbed to 104 days, compared to 97 days in 2025 and 93 days in 2024.
Seller Activity Rebounds At The Start of 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS data
- Seller activity was strong throughout 2025, with new listings consistently elevated for much of the year.
- By fall and winter, many sellers pulled back, leading to a noticeable wave of delistings as market cooled.
- The latest new listings activity shows sellers are re-entering the market ahead of the spring market, reversing the late-year retreat. In January, new listings surged 50 percent MoM.
- Fresh listings are now rebuilding inventory and setting up for a more active spring market. Year over year, new listings have already surpassed early 2025 levels, a period that saw record seller activity.
Inventory Breaks Past 2025 Levels At The Start of 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data
- Active inventory is climbing again, up 3 percent MoM, as fresh new listings accelerated with a strong influx of seller activity ahead of the 2026 spring market.
- In January, active inventory totaled 131,420, or 11.2 percent higher YoY.
- It is likely on track to reach new highs in 2026, supported by rebounding seller activity and rising listing momentum.
- Inventory pressure on new- and existing-listing pricing is likely to put downward pressure on prices heading into the spring market, particularly if mortgage rates remain in the 6’s and affordability continues to constrain buyer demand.
Ongoing Downturn: Home Prices Extend Their Decline Into 2026
Note: The year-over-year change in the price index is calculated as a three-month moving average ending in the report month.
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS data
- The pace of price softening continued through January, showing little signs of easing and even accelerating in Southeast and South Central Texas. Statewide, YoY home prices declined 0.7 percent, following a 0.7 percent decline in December and 0.6 percent in November.
- Entering 2026, Houston and San Antonio experienced increased pricing pressure, with YoY price declines widening to 1 percent and 2.5 percent respectively, up from 0.6 percent and 1.8 percent the prior month.
- In Austin, prices continue to decline YoY in the 2 to 3 percent range. Median seller price cuts from the initial listing price reached $35,000, up from $28,000 a year earlier. Active inventory in January was 12.5 percent higher than a year ago, signaling continued inventory buildup heading into the 2026 spring market.
- Price softening in DFW persisted through January, marking the 11th consecutive month of YoY declines.
Local Housing Market Indicators
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS data
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data
Notes: Permit value is builder estimated construction costs of the residential structure, not including land acquisition costs.
Source: Survey of New Construction of U.S. Census Bureau
Source: Texas Housing Insight | March 2026 | Texas Real Estate Research Center (written by Yanling Mayer)
