Disclaimer: The March 2026 figures are based on more complete data and have been revised from their initial release.
Total home sales increased in March, reversing the declines recorded in January and February. The stronger finish was enough to lift first quarter sales into positive territory, resulting in a modest overall gain for the period.
However, March’s improvement largely reflected the impact of declining mortgage rates that had been trending downward since last June and easing further through the first two months of the year. Improving inflation readings in January and February also helped bolster consumer confidence in the overall economic outlook, contributing to stronger buyer activity.
At a time when the housing market enters its busiest stretch of the year—April through June typically accounts for 30 percent of annual home sales—a mix of global and domestic pressures have risen to weigh on buyer demand. These headwinds, including sharply higher energy prices, their cost-push inflationary effects on consumer goods and services, and rising mortgage rates, are expected to shape the 2026 spring season and likely beyond.
Early indications suggest some of these new pressures are already slowing buyer activity and contributing to more hesitant purchasing behavior. April’s pending home-sales index indicates slower buyer-contract-pending activity than typically recorded for the month of April.
On the supply side, with the spring selling season in full swing, more homeowners are listing their properties, contributing to a continued rise in inventory. Although inventory growth is not accelerating as sharply as it did last year, it is still running ahead of year-ago levels. The combination of expanding inventory and a reversal in the mortgage-rate trajectory from the declines seen in January and February is creating additional pricing pressure for sellers. Statewide, home prices have broadly softened through March, with preliminary data pointing to further weakening into April.
While questions remain about whether current headwinds will persist into the second half of 2026, some prospective buyers this spring are nevertheless well positioned to leverage today’s market conditions at the negotiation table. In the post-pandemic housing landscape, sellers of existing homes have increasingly faced competition from builders, who have been more aggressive in offering affordability adjustments to attract buyers. Importantly, as new construction pivots toward more lower-priced and attainable homes, the price gap between new construction and existing homes has narrowed considerably, making new builds more competitive and accessible to a broader pool of buyers. Over the past 12 months, the average difference between median-priced new builds and median-priced resales has fallen to an all-time low of $15,500, underscoring how significantly the market has realigned.
March Sales Rose Sharply, Reversing Earlier Sales Decline
- Statewide, March recorded 29,950 closed sales, up 6.7 percent year over year (YoY) and a reversal of the declines seen in January and February. Sales were broadly up across major metros, rising 10.5 percent in San Antonio, 8.5 percent in Austin, 4.7 percent in DFW, and 2.6 percent Houston (see Table 3).
- Rising March sales pushed year-to-date sales to a modest 1 percent gain over last year. Regionally, year to date (YTD) sales (Q1 sales) were up 3.4 percent in Austin, while they declined 1.9 percent in DFW, 1.2 percent in Houston and 1.4 percent in San Antonio (see Table 3).
- Statewide, March’s median sale prices were $332,000, up slightly from February’s $325,000 and reflecting typical seasonal gains from February to March. Prices declined 2.1 percent YoY, extending the drops seen in January and February.
- Nationally, seasonally unadjusted home sales posted a moderate 4.4 percent YoY gain. Sales rose 6.6 percent in the South, 6.3 percent in the West, and 2.9 percent in the Midwest, while the Northeast was the only region to decline, with sales down 6.1 percent.
- In March, the national median price for existing single-family homes was $413,300, up 1.5 percent YoY.
Monthly Market Snapshot: March Sales and Inventory Trends
- Overall liquidity in the market remains strained, with listings staying on the market longer and sellers continuing to reduce prices. In March, sold homes spent an average of 82 days on the market, up from 71 days in 2025 and 63 days in 2024.
- March’s inventory turnover ratio indicates that one in four active listings received a pending offer during the month.
- Median seller price cuts reached $14,900, or 4.1 percent off the initial listing price, up from $12,500 (3.6 percent) a year ago.
- Active (unsold) inventory rose to a five-month supply, up from 4.8 months in February, reflecting a normal seasonal buildup for peak spring sales. On a YoY basis, active inventory is higher than both last year and the year before.
- At the end of March, unsold inventory had an average days on market (DOM) of 94 days, reaching a two-year high.
Seller Activity Increases at a Steady Pace
- New listings continued to climb as the market moved into the typical seasonal upswing. In March, roughly 58,270 new listings came online, a 23 percent month over month (MoM) increase that aligns with the usual February to March acceleration.
- New listings were 2.8 percent higher than last March, making a modest but steady improvement in seller participation. New-listings activity is running 2.2 percent ahead of last year through the first quarter of 2026.
- New-listings activity was strongest in the San Antonio market, where they surged 39 percent from February to March. This jump pushed new-listings volume to 14.5 percent higher than last year’s level and represents the strongest seasonal momentum the market has seen since 2021 (see Table 4).
- In Austin, new-listings activity remains 1.7 percent higher than a year ago. In both DFW and Houston, new-listings volumes are holding roughly in line with last year, suggesting a more cautious pace of seller activity (see Table 4).
Inventory Continues to Climb at a Moderate Pace
- With more sellers bringing properties to the market and the sales pace subdued, inventory continues to trend upward. In March, active inventory rose 3.8 percent MoM, totaling roughly 139,300.
- Compared with last year, March’s active inventory was 7.2 percent higher and pushing months’ supply to five months. The last market cycle during which inventory reached more than five months’ supply was in 2012.
- While the growth rate is not as sharp as last year’s, inventory levels remain on a trajectory that could push them toward new cycle highs.
- Across the largest Texas metros, March’s active inventory remains moderately higher than a year ago, up 7.2 percent in Austin, 3.4 percent in DFW, 9.8 percent in Houston, and 10 percent in San Antonio (see Table 4).
Texas Home Prices Remain in Decline
- Home prices continued to soften through March, marking the 10th consecutive YoY decline.
- The pace of declines has remained relatively steady since September, with annual price drops consistently holding in the 0.5-0.7 percent range. Preliminary April data points to a continuation of this trend.
- Prices remain weakest in the Austin market, where YoY declines continue to hover near 3 percent. In March, median seller price cuts reached $25,000, equal to 5.4 percent off the original listing price.
- Prices in Houston and San Antonio also continued to weaken, falling 1.6 and 1.7 percent, respectively, in March. Median seller price cuts were $15,500 in Houston and $18,000 in San Antonio, representing 4.4 and 5.2 percent reductions from initial listing prices.
- Price softening in the DFW area persisted through March, though the declines remain more modest at 0.8 percent YoY. Median seller price cuts averaged $15,000, or 3.6 percent off the initial listing price.
New Construction Trends: New Builds Activity Continues Pivot Toward Affordability
- New construction continues to trend toward better affordability. Since summer 2022, median prices for new builds have steadily declined, representing a structural shift toward lower price points as affordability has deteriorated under high mortgage rates, high prices and inflation.
- The pivot has steadily narrowed the price gap between new construction and existing homes, making new builds increasingly more competitive and accessible to a broader pool of buyers.
- By March 2026, median sales prices on new construction reached $341,500, compared with $326,200 for existing homes, or a price gap of $15,500. Just a year ago, that gap stood at $19,900.
- Before the pandemic, new construction was significantly more expensive, often priced nearly $100,000 above typical resale homes, equivalent to a 40-60 percent price premium. The current narrowing largely reflects strategic builder affordability adjustment to build smaller homes.
Local Housing Market Indicators
Table 3
METRO LEVEL HOME SALES, MARCH 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS® data
Table 4
METRO LEVEL MONTH-END INVENTORY, MARCH 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
Table 5
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING PERMITS, MARCH 2026
Notes: Permit value is builder estimated construction costs of the residential structure, not including land acquisition costs.
Source: Survey of New Construction of U.S. Census Bureau
Source: Texas Housing Insight | May 2026 | Texas Real Estate Research Center (written by Yanling Mayer)
