Disclaimer: The July 2026 figures are based on more complete data and have been revised from their initial release.
Throughout July, the Texas housing market held up remarkably well despite persistently high mortgage rates, rising inflation, and broad economic uncertainty. Supported by the state’s strong labor market, statewide sales increased 2.2 percent year over year (YoY) in July, building on the strong sales performance recorded in June. Year to date, sales were 3.2 percent higher than the same period last year, unchanged from June.
Housing supply across Texas continues to expand at a slow but steady pace. Heading into the fall, however, active inventory is expected to retreat from its summer peak as seasonal demand slows sharply, and sellers pull back from fresh new-listings activity. This seasonal moderation should help limit further inventory accumulation, although buyers will continue to benefit from more choices than they had during the tight market just a few years ago.
Home prices remain under pressure in July, but the annual rate of decline continued to moderate. Statewide prices were 0.2 percent below their year-ago levels, improving from declines of 0.4 percent in June and 0.6 percent in May. The statewide median sales price was unchanged from last year at $339,000. Preliminary August data point to a further easing of downward price pressures. The improvement was especially evident in Houston, where July marked the first month in the past 12 months in which home prices did not decline on a YoY basis.
For a housing market already grappling with affordability challenges, the outlook heading into the fall remains subdued. In response to recent inflation data, capital market began pricing in a higher interest rate environment, pushing borrowing costs upward even before the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike on Sept. 16. As a result, mortgage rates had already been trending higher and moved above 7 percent ahead of the decision. Higher financing costs are expected to remain the primary headwind for the housing market in the months ahead.
On the positive side, a resilient labor market is offsetting some of the strong headwinds. Recent economic data continues to point to a solid labor market, which should help sustain household income growth and support housing demand. Nevertheless, as the market enters its seasonally slower period, the new higher rate environment will weigh on home sales activity across Texas through the remainder of the year.
July Sales Post Modest Gains
Table 1: July 2026 State & National Sales
Notes: The sales numbers reflect actual sales, not the seasonally adjusted rate.
Source: Texas REALTORS® and National Association of REALTORS® data (accessed at Haver Analytics)
- Statewide, Texas recorded 32,306 closed sales in July, a 2.2 percent increase YoY. Through July, year-to-date (YTD) sales were 3.2 percent higher than during the same period last year, unchanged since June.
- July sales activity was mixed across the major Texas metros, with YoY growth ranging from 11.7 percent gains in Austin to 1.5 percent drop in DFW (see Table 3). As of July, Austin YTD sales pace running 9 percent above last year’s (see Table 3).
- Texas’ median sales price was $339,000 in July, unchanged from a year ago but down slightly from $342,000 in June.
- Nationally, non-seasonally adjusted existing home sales rose 3.1 percent YoY in July and were 2.4 percent above last year’s pace on a YTD basis. Meanwhile, the median existing single-family home price rose to $442,500 with a 2.4 percent gain from $432,000 a year earlier.
- Pending sales point to a weaker August sales in Texas and nationwide.
Monthly Market Snapshot: July Sales and Inventory Trends
Table 2: Texas Housing Market Indicators
Notes: The turnover rate is calculated as pending sales divided by inventory, where inventory is the average of month-beginning and month-ending inventory
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
- Homes sold in July spent an average of 63 days on the market (DoM), slightly above 61 days a year ago.
- Homes continue to take a little longer to sell in 2026 than in 2025, but inventory turnover rate is approaching last year’s levels as inventory growth moderates.
- The median seller price cuts remain elevated at $13,000 (equivalent to 3.6 percent of the initial listing price); the pace of price cuts is slowing compared to a year ago.
- As of July, active inventory is at 5.5-month supply. The DoM among July-end unsold inventory stands at 92 days, compared to a DoM of 63 days among sold homes.
Seller-Listing Activity Continues to Cool Heading Into Fall
Figure 1: Monthly New-Listing Activity, 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
- Statewide, 56,300 new listings came onto the market, down 0.4 percent from June, reflecting a typical seasonal pullback.
- The YoY pace of new listings in June and July was running slightly ahead of last year, pushing YTD new-listing activity to levels similar to last year’s.
- New-listing activity continues to cool in July as markets headed into the fall (see Table 4). YTD, however, new listings across these metros remained above last year’s levels.
Inventory Keeps Rising But Lags Year-Ago Levels
Figure 2: Monthly Active Inventory, 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
- Statewide, steady inventory expansion continued, reaching approximately 156,000 active listings as of July month-end, up 2.2 percent from June.
- Since June, inventory YoY began to decline. In July, active inventory is 0.4 percent below last year.
- July’s month-end active inventory stood at 5.5-month supply, down slightly from 5.6 months during the same period last year.
- Inventory conditions varied across the major metropolitan areas (see Table 4). In DFW, active inventory was down 4.3 percent YoY, with month’s supply at 4.6 months. In San Antonio, active inventory rose 4.4 percent and month’s supply rose to 6.2 months.
Texas Home Prices are Down, But Downward Pressures are Easing
Figure 3: Texas HPI: Texas and Regional Home Price Trends
Note: The year-over-year change in the price index is calculated using a three-month moving average ending in the report month.
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
- Texas home prices are still falling but at a slower rate. Statewide, home prices fell 0.2 percent YoY, compared to June’s 0.4 percent decline.
- Prices are still weakest in Austin, where home prices declined 1.4 percent in July, but the market continues to show encouraging signs of easing pricing pressures. In San Antonio, prices declined 1.1 percent, easing from June’s 1.7 percent.
- Easing price pressures were most evident in Houston, where July marked the first non-negative YoY price change in the past 12 months.
- Meanwhile, prices in Fort Worth-Arlington market continued to gain momentum, posting a fourth consecutive month of YoY price gains.
- Overall, The DFW market saw YoY price declines ease to 0.2 percent in July.
Local Housing Market Indicators
Table 3: Metro-Level Home Sales, July 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
Table 4: Metro-Level Month-End Inventory, July 2026
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data
Table 5: Single-Family Housing Permits, July 2026
Note: Permit value is builder estimated construction cost of the residential structure, not including land acquisition cost.
Source: Survey of New Construction of U.S. Census Bureau
Source: Texas Housing Insight | September 2026 | Texas Real Estate Research Center (written by: Yanling Mayer)
